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Miami Nights Bear Necessities
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16896682 - Offered and Sold for a Stormy Phantom [LU: 2.5 - 2.7] (No Overpay Needed) but the Buyer added 10 Keys in Sweets (0.5) -> 2.6 - 0.5 = ~2.1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17176503 - B/O of 3, sold for an Arcana Tsarboosh (Unpriced)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17172815 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17174719
Sold for a Disco Beat Down Mullet [LU: 2.4] = ~2.2, Seller had a B/O of a Max Head (2.2 - 2.3)
Offers significantly higher than the suggested range are an issue here.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17241934
ML ck + searing bucks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14502093
Offers in the last 2 months alone:
TW cold killer / disco bunsen / ks dragonborn - all by same person
warp juju
even the bubbling bubble pipe offer is much higher than 2.2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17058725 - offered 2.5 pure, aces rack ~2.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16901313 - sold for 4 pure
Your third link is by an unboxer with little unusual experience
Second link was the person who bought it looking who dumped it quickly for profit. Looks like a chain of quicksells.
Hard to say what the range should be. But with so many offers >2 even in pure, the suggested range seems low.