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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17318175 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17376426
1:1 with CH Tossle (5 buds after overpay)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16615151
2:1 with BF Chapeau (10.8 after unusual overpay)
SF Merryweather - mid value 6.2 * 0.9 = 5.6 buds (10.8 - 5.6 = 5.2 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17217318 - http://puu.sh/6rIoq.png http://puu.sh/6p5fM http://puu.sh/6p5tu
Overpay calculated already, sold for Hearts Ushanka (2.25), Steaming AA (1), NnB Gym Rat (0.5), sweets (0.75) = 4.5 buds
If there's anything needed to be noted, please do tell.
Just going to say this, no tosslecap is going for 5 buds on outpost and it is oudated, and so is the ushanka, you can't make a suggestion with outdated hats
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17376426 - Doesn't seem to sell for 6 buds either
However I'd guess that the range is a bit off depending which of these hats are at correct price and which aren't, so you're right with that since I'm not all sure which of these trades are valid or not.
Also, found a new sale again, not sure if this one is badly outdated too like the others.
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198027875270?time=1389772800 -> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198027875270?time=1389859200
Sold for SF Pugilist's Protector (1.95 * 0.9 = 1.75), Green fetti Gym Rat (1.2 * 0.9 = 1.1) 2 buds pure and 2 keys (0.1)
1.75 + 1.1 + 2.1 = 4.95 buds
And after 2 days I noticed that I posted the wrong Tossle trade, lol
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17278589 - here's the one I mentioned about not selling for 6 buds after a week either
5 buds is still what it would be from the mid value multiplied by 0.9
A guy is collecting and he's looking for pure and no other offers. There have been many sales of the Tossle at 6+, but your new one sale looks like legit proof
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17158867 - sold for unpriced hat
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17301997 - smoking ke + dp escorter (escorter unpriced but this is probably ~5-5.5)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17078322 - complex deal
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15500160 - b/o 4.8
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17217318 - b/o 5
One current quickseller at 4. This is probably close.