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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17445904#p50782522 - sold within 6 hours for asking price of 1 bud 5 keys. Received interest in servers and here, however they were put off by the 19 key price guide. This is a semi- rare hat (only 15) so is difficult to judge, but using previous sales this seems to be a rough price.
15 in existance for an unusual is alot, you need more proof.
I checked all the usual trading sites (outpost, bazaar, etc...) and can't find anything either. Either way I think fetti needs to go up, it's pretty and semi-noticable. Shouldn't be so cancerous.
0 on the market isn't a lot, he doesn't need more proof.
19-24 keys or 1-1.2 buds would have been best here
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16435726 - sold for 1 pure
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17223862 - sold for 1 after overpay