http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15788176 (had a buyout of 4 buds on November 17th, 2013. Looks to have traded it in a deal for a vivid plasma HazMat Headcase)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16841150

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198022041905?time=1388736000 (Last seen with HazMat)

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198022041905?time=1388822400 (First seen with hard counter)

Looks like the hard counter was valued ~ 3 buds in that trade ↓

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52c96e944dd7b8476f8b456f

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17019545 (The next owner wanted 3 buds and 3 keys. Looks like it sold for 63 keys, which is ~ 3.2 buds)

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198062447817?time=1388736000

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198062447817?time=1388908800

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Looks to have then been traded for 3 buds.

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044564650?time=1388995200

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044564650?time=1389254400 (3 days later)

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17095459 (Current owner has a buyout of 4 buds)

Summary: Valued as 3 buds in the first trade, seems to be accurate considering it sold for around 3 buds pure twice since then. Because it took less than a week to get 3 pure I’m inclined to suggest a 3.5 bud high-end.