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As per Awesome's request.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15087169 Sold for 3.2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17222778 Sold for Cloud 9 l'inspectur + blizz phantom + 7 Keys (~8.1 - outlier)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17210967 Sold for +black bill's for an Anti Freeze Prancers (~3.9)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/248930 Sold for Terror Watt Tyrants (N/A)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/93930 Sold for Duped burning snaggle (~4 buds)
I'm rather neutral on this. Your valuation seems correct but the sales you show are rather iffy.
The duped snaggle trade I wouldn't count. leaving you with only 2 trades actually in your range and one significantly different.
I helped my friend sell his for KaW das naggenvatcher +sweets. (again you can't count that trade).Edit: I corrected what the trade was
I just bought the exact hat he sold for 40 keys pure through my quickbuy trade. (seems like an outlier compared to other offers and the trades you posted)
4 is a generous evaluation on the duped burning snaggle. Probably realistically ~3.5-4. The guy who bought it was selling himself for 3.5 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16342387
High offers here top out around 4 after a month+
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15135920
Sales at 2, 3.2, 3.5-4, 3.9, 8.1. Seems like high and low are outliers. Not unreasonable.