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Hooray for ugly ranges.
Sellers -
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15740391 - 4 ref - inactive user though, offline for 70 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17587287 - 4.77
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17422669 - 4.88
5 ref unsolds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17552429 - 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17483486 - 6 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17457194 - 8 days - poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17374406 - 11 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17159816 - 19 days - poorly bumped
I'm willing to bet that the top link is just a troll.
The evidence looks a bit on the low side. I'm gonna stay neutral.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/188679362
Few are unpainted and regular levels. Also vintage suggestions have passed before with low evidence. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52ddcc134cd7b8f2478b4569
I forgot about paint. Hmm... yeah sure, I'll upvote.
can we get actual sales? This thing us hard as hell to sell...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15219776 gold painted at 5 ref, took me 2 months to sell
You mean sales at lower? If so unnecessary for when dropping a price.
My point is, that even your suggested range may be a bit high...but that's my personal opinion, I don't really have proof (except for the 2 months sale at 5 ref; and that's not really proof for a lower range)
I can't change that. Even if it's high it shouldn't be any lower if there aren't any sellers for lower.