Suggestion: Strange Grenade Launcher at 5–5.33 ref

Price Suggestion

~31.72 ref

986 votes up

354 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Sun, 02 Feb 14 17:31:57 +0000 by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

So here we go again. I'm re-introducing a much needed price drop in this extremely inflated weapon. My previous recommendation, while receiving positive votes, was not accepted due a dearth of evidence. So this is my re-entry in an effort to redeem myself.

On a supply level.

According to Stats.tf, there are more Strange Grenade Launchers than Strange Fists

Source:

Fists

http://stats.tf/item/195/Fists

Grenades

http://stats.tf/item/206/Grenade_Launcher

Add on top of this that the Grenade Launchers have been active in the newest crate series. Hence, more are obviously added everyday. On top of that, they have existed in an active series prior to this. Hence there is an inflationary component to having them in the market.

Viewing Current Trends

Disclaimer: All trades found on outpost were bumped today, any closing of trades occurred after this post was written.

4.6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17632651 (Selling for 1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17538758 (Selling Strange Grenades for 5 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17648486 (Selling for 11 hours+)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17598973 (Selling for 2 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17660580

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17608523

5.3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17636332

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17510678

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17651306

5.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17587590 (Selling for 3 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17538758 (Selling for 5 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17625756 (Selling for 1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17645974 (Selling for 15 hours)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17660902

5.6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17607548

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17645669 (Selling for 15 hours)

6.0

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17494671 (Selling for 1 week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17630465 (Selling for 1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17445637 (Selling for 1 week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17620691 (Selling for 1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17617952 (Selling for 2 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17610561 (Selling for 2 days)

Selling for 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17415661 (Selling for 1 week)

2 keys (Selling for 1 month)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16826270

Various Classified Listing Below 5.6

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52c896ba4cd7b8b4138b4567

- We can also find over ten listings in which are are 5 refine or lower.

- Some have been selling for various hours

One of the arguments against the price change that I fail to address was as follows:

"Counterproof shows 6 ref can still sell (albeit very slowly), and most of your 5s sold incredibly quickly.

Without more evidence, I don't think this is more accurate than the current price."

Whilst its true, it is possible, given in rare instances, that an item can be sold for this price, this does not make it a feasible price because on average, most sellers are selling at a lower price. As I stated before in the previous thread, I bought my grenade for 2 refine. This is because I took the "wait it out" method. However I argue that it should not be the basis that we set our prices on simply because it can yield a wide range for outlier results.

For example today, there was a Strange Grenade Launcher sold for 1 Key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17415661

Moreover, of all the trades I've seen today of Strange GLs, only one sold for 6 refine,

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17610561

These are the outliers and can be dismissed just as evidence of grenades I found being sold yesterday for 4 can be dismissed can be excused for the same reason.

(Referring to these bellow)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17627116

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17635810

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17566061

I should disclose that I have currently one grenade launcher in my inventory. However, I have nothing to profit from a lower drop. My intentions stem from a concern on the part of the buyers. I've been on the raw end of a bad trade and have learned throughout my trading endeavors that if you buy early, your going to pay an outrageous amount.

Conclusion

Yes, 5.6 and 6.0 are outdated prices for this inflated weapon. We find that the rate in which these weapons are being sold is no longer at a point for 5 refine is a quick sell. A quick sell is more int he range of 4. 5 is the new average in which people are struggling to sell these items. Yes, people have been selling for higher, but as I have discussed they have also been selling for lower, and thus can be deemed as outliers.

I'm liking all the explanations but heads up, quantity isn't necessarily a defining factor for value. the same goes for how long it's been around, that sorta thing

Yeah, I agree. Was just trying to include as much data as possible. But I agree, that part of my argument isn't very relevant. You're more than welcome to delete those two nick-picky aspects if you'd like.

well I can't exactly edit your posts you know... XD

Aha, my bad. I thought you were a mod. Well the offer still stands to any mod out there!

lol s'ok, happens quite often actually :o

Oi. These prices are far apart while most of them sell around the same duration. I'm staying neutral.

Took me 2 days to finally sell for 5 Refined. (Original price was 5.33 Refined)

http://gyazo.com/2b2a89d08078421f23667e1f50b9b5ee

Sold one for 6 ref fairly quick - http://i.imgur.com/WGg5WT7.png

Sold one for 6.33 ref - http://i.imgur.com/bxiw3gj.png

Nice counterproof :)

methinks brian would need more counter proof since this is a fairly popular/ often traded item

yep needs more and fresher.

6 ref is fine, but the 6.33 is from Jan 26th

The proof looks iffy, and I'm going to remain neutral for now.

I'm curious though, why are you comparing the Grenade Launcher to the Fists?

First of all, stats.tf isn't reliable in any sense. They can't see inside private inventories, and for all we know there could be 1000 Unusual Team Captain as opposed to the listed 630.

Second, primaries are much more valuable than melees in most cases, so (implying) that the Grenade Launcher should be less expensive than the Fists is just portraying ignorance. The preference of the traders is what drives the market, not the quantity of the items.

The proof was just to show that there are indeed plenty of Strange Grenade. That by itself doesn't mean anything but it was just part of my arguement as a whole.

On the reliability factor of stats.tf, I'd argue that their sample size is sufficient to make it legitimate. Moreover, most, if not all, trading sites require backpacks to be public, and again, I think the sample size sufficient for at least a somewhat accurate statistic.

And I agree with your point. Grenades should be more valuable than fists because of its secondary position. Again, it was just to demonstrate that this weapon is not by any means scarce.

At the time of this post: classifieds have 23 nade launchers selling in your range, and one selling for 4.77. Upvote.

Can no one actually disprove 5.66 or 6 ref on the strange grenade launcher suggestions yet? 4ish links can not disprove the entire current range, then drop it .66. Not with 20+ pages

Im gonna copypasta the 6 ref sold proof again, although this might be the last valid day to post these if you continue to produce almost the same suggestion every day.

sold @ 6 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17406211

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17445637 2 / 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17486503 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17496395 1/2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17524508 5/7

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17529216

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17554882

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17563189

It's not just those links sir.

Please note:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52c896ba4cd7b8b4138b4567

Various sellers @ 5.0 and under

*ma'am And you need to disprove 5.66-6. I know it should be lowered (not this much) but you aren't providing the unsolds needed to adjust the range of an item with over 20 pages on outpost

Haha, sorry about that, the one time I reffer to someone in a non-gender neutral way i'm wrong.

Ehem

Alright, well to begin, all the posts you showed were 4 days to weeks old. Every single link I provided was bumped today. So I would argue your counter proof is obsolete.

If you look at the various pages, your right. Many are for sale for 6.0, and others for keys, and some for two keys. The problem is, 5.6 + is getting more difficult to sell today. That and the addition that people are selling for way less.

Just checked outpost got these on the front page.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17619991

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17554995

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17642445

And there are various at just 5 here at backpack

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52c896ba4cd7b8b4138b4567

I do not denied that they are very rarely being sold at 6. However, as I have shown, they are very rarely being sold at 4. And some are being sold for a key. I have explained, these are outliers. If the influx of sellers at 5.0 can't "quick sell" that should be reason to change the price. Additionally, as I've shown in my updates, we see that people are lowering their prices in order to be competitive. Hence, why we need the price change. The consumers have a right to know. /Elizabeth Warren

Either way, thank you for your input.

That proof is pretty old now. Any solds @ 6 ref the last 3-4 days?

I think, if I have time, tomorrow will do a suggestion for do 6 refs flat price. 5.66 is a quicksell! And 5.33 more. You can see it on almost all the comments with counter-proof. Downvote.

Most, if not all, of the trades I provided on the top post bellow 5.6 are in fact still open. If I may ask, where are you getting this information?

Thanks.

Update 1:

The first person selling at 5.6 has closed this trade

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17607548

And is now trading to sell their item for 5.0

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17661774

5.66 has still been easy for me to sell at :P take that as you will

Update 2:

It seems as though one of the traders selling their Strange GL's for 6 refine, has also lowered it's price in order to be competitive all the way down to 5 refine.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17610561

Others items found in this range if doing a quick search.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17681951

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17686390

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17683055

5.3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17651306

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17690280

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17665404

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17684704

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17606882

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17638307

Various other listings bellow 5.3 can continued to be found here.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52c896ba4cd7b8b4138b4567

you 5.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17645669

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17607548

not sure how to vote yet. Defintly needs a drop. Maybe Ill do some research tonight.

The first seller still has grenades for sale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17660895

Your second sellers just sold their item 2 days ago but at an unknown price, it's quite possible they sold it for less because there is a stark drop in value of their backpack on the day the supposedly sold it (The 31st)

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198070627957?time=1391155200

STOP LOWERING THE PRICE D;

I had about 4 s. nade launchers. sold em all for 5.66 ref pure each easily and within a day. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17660895

Yet you only provide a trade where you are selling 2 and they're not confirmed sold, and the only one saying "added" got his Grenade elsewhere.

Poor Grenade Launcher :(

owns one, this is obvious price mani...wait what?, yea this item needs a good drop, well there is a low ammount of proof, but it seems to be right upgoat

Counterproof is fairly sparce and tends to be either old or questionable, as pointed out in the comments. Given the vote percentage difference between this and the 5-6 ref suggestion as well as the sheer numbers available on the classifieds, I am accepting this suggestion between the two.