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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16517995 sold electro pipe+10 keys (2.5 with old price) will take as 2.2 in this suggestion just because 2013 effect and old price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17401684 sold planets hoodie+1 bud (i was offered it aswell but he took his instead of mine when trades were shitty the other day) ~1-9
http://puu.sh/6H4Yd.png sold planets counterbilly+v.luger+flip knife (sold the flip knife for 53€ over the night. with fees thats 45€. 1.8€ per key leaves an offer of 25 keys) ~42 keys ~2.2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15936196 sold o.f das hazmat and he added lime gen crosscomm (~1.8)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15307803 sold 35 keys when buds were 18 each
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15528924 sold 2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16276121 - added ~8-10 keys worth for a lantern billy. Involved a #2 brain bucket which was offered ~8 on his own trade. Without overpay this sale comes out to ~1.7 (could probably gotten atleast a bud for such an old craft #2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15483807 - added 4.5 keys worth for searing shako. No overpay since offered. This is ~1.6.
Just as a heads up, it's not okay to make up a price deduction on a hat just because it has an old effect. A new suggestion should be made for that or that sale should be ignored. Still, there is enough other stuff here to suggest the range is close.