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1 of 1, 1 year old price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16702866
Scorching Charmers (10-12 buds) +Scorching Guad (4.4 - 5.3) + Scorching Pencil + Scorching Salty (5.3-6.5) - Groovy added ~1.8 buds to Burning Ballcap (20-23.2) (1 bud pure + 4 keys + Gifted SF Flamethrower) http://backpack.tf/id/76561198065902761?time=1388476800 http://backpack.tf/id/76561198065902761?time=1388563200
Taking middle values, no clue who overpayed.
11+4.8+5.9 = 21.7 buds
--> 23.4 buds - 21.7 = 1.7 buds. outlier.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16103310 - Scorching Virtual Viewfinder for 9 scorching hats, including Pencil Pusher. No price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15210716 Sold for Stormy Scopers (2.4-3) + 7 keys + Bill's + Sweets = 2.4 + 0.7 = 3.1 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15196418
Sold for Strange Shotgun + #15 Hardy Laurel + #47 Jingle Belt + #93 Flared Frontiersman + S PDA + Waterlogged Surgeon's Satchel + A BUNCH OF HATS
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198024346907?time=1382338800 - Before sale
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198024346907?time=1382425200 - After sale
Too complicated.
One decent sale, one pricing.
the only problem i see here is that the sale you are using is 3+ months old
mmm. just over 3 months. but my concern here is that it really needs a range. Ramses used showed sales involving the moon buckaroos suggestion and 13th hour conq suggestions that aren't that much older than the one at 3.1 and yet those aren't used. If you considered those, it would ~2.5-3. Really need to wait on more sales here.