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It's a nice hat, but most people don't seem to want to keep it or buy it at the price it is right now or even lower than that; 13 exist and 9 are on outpost.
( http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/191597376 )
B/O of 5 Buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17879873 - It's very new, I know, but it hasn't been sold yet, so 5 buds isn't an instant steal
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17770494 - 3 days - a sad offer of 2 buds... but that is what someone is willing to pay.
B/O of 6+ Buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/38967 - Has had for about a week.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15561224 - 3 months
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12692445 - 6 months - Highest recent offer (dead president Samur-eye - 4.3-4.8)
Solds in the past month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17303182 - Seems to have been sold for around 100 Keys to fund his new unusuals
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17251212 - Seems to have sold for Sunbeams Stout Shako - priced 4.3-4.7
Highest offers for other Unusual War Pigs for sale.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17462987 - Aces high Infernal Impaler
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17747192 - Sulphurous Towering Titanium (4 month old price of 6.3-7.4) - retracted
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17175372 - Cloud 9 Steel Shako+ (2 weeks ago)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17756210 - Disco Beat Down Das Naggenvatcher for Aces War Pig + Blizzard Galv. Gibus (8.2-8.5) - (Sold to someone else)
I'm not sure this is enough to verify, but please tell me if it's no good :)
"6 months ago huge quicksell" lold irl
Offers do not work in lowering values of unusuals, as people will always offer under value in hopes to get it and resell it for a better profit.
Edit: Also Sunbeams Shako is over 7 months outdated AND you aren't even using original values, range doesn't work at all
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17879873 - was sold for Cloud 9 L'homme Burglerre (5-6). The new owner of the Aces War Pig is now quickselling for 4 Buds + 8 Keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17905181 (Just a note, not added to change anything)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11576940 - this hat offered on aces softcap (5.5 buds, very old price)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17310532 - appears to have sold with gifted craftable lucky no.42 (~2 buds?) and maybe some keys for blizz gibus (8.2-8.5): http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2288746475,30003,5
The beams shako price is 7 months old (and suggestion was 4-4.4), so it shouldn't be used. In your second post, you showed another sale at ~5 buds, and the 4 buds + 8 keys quicksell sold rather fast too. I feel that your suggested low end is a bit too low.