4 month old price, only 4 of these hats exist according to stats.tf

Only sale I could find within the last couple months:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17415555

Sold for burning drill + burning raincatcher ~16 buds

B: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198053014083?time=1391068800

A: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198053014083?time=1391155200

Previous suggested price was based 17-20 based on a standing buy trade (aka someone offering 17 buds for one) and B/Os, not sales, so that isn't of much use. At the time buds were ~16.5 keys so converting this to current bud values the range would be 16.5/19.5 * (17-20) = 14.4-16.9 buds.

There are 3 on the market, none have useful offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17665548 B/O 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17770295 No B/O

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17917534 B/O 16 pure

Based on the sale from a couple weeks ago and the rarity of the hat, this flat price is justified imo.