Hi.

CLASSIFIEDS - http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52f52f694dd7b8121f8b456a

6 under 5 ref

19 at 5 ref

SELLING FOR UNDER 5 REF

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17939184 - 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17988891 - 3.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17986716 - 3.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17932562 - 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17927858 - 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17978163 - 4.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17971667 - 4.5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17993683 - 4.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17988171 - 4.66 ref

While these still seem to be widely available and sell for 5 ref, lower is most definitely possible. Even though there are some selling for under 4.66 ref, I'm going with that as a conservative lower end for now.