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Rare? The hell it is!
Unsolds at 4.77-5 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17999955 - Young
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17994297 - Couple hours
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17987389 - 11 hours
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17970884 - Almost 2 days. Sold one. Eh...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17966035
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17960688 - Day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17957257
Sellers at or below 4.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18001780 - 4.00. Has 4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17993909 - 4.00
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17980962 - 4.00. Has 2. Unsold almost a day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17974031 - 4.00
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17967147 - 4.00
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17966389
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17963165 - 4.00
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17961380 - Sold 2 at 4.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17959207 - Sold a couple at 4.66. Took a day
Couldn't find sellers at 4.33
Conclusion
Many willing sellers at 4 refined. 4.66 still happens on occasion, but 5 ref almost never does. Not many people selling for 5 or 4.33 ref.
Any Extra Proof/Cunter-Proof/Opinions/Tips/Help is all welcome. Thanks for reading. Feedback is always appreciated.
Edit: Last link didn't actually sell. He re-created the trade at L1 under Sellers because he had no success
Some more sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18020044 - 3.66
why did this item even rise.
It rose because there was little sellers for them on the market, and the only sellers were selling for a key.
It was rare at the time (2 weeks ago). Over a week, the market began to become flooded and now the price is dropping
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52f0ce404cd7b8a8088b4568 - Dem 2 links doe
Funny that there's more on the market once they see the supposed Key+ value.
Hoarding and anti-hoarding (or what you call it) i.e. when supply has gotten dry due to hoarders and price has risen, people want to sell and price falls again
just like hype and anti-hype