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Original price: 2.7-3.6 [1 year old]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17304387 - Nuts 'n' Bolts El Jefe (1.1 with overpay) + Australium Tomislav (1) + 17 keys (~0.85) [~3 total]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17899411 - Chiroptera Venenata Madame Dixie - No price, but the B/O on the Dixie was 3.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18008455 - Current trade, B/O of 3.
There was also a sale involving a Bubbling JuJu ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2283599330,935,5[/url]) + Terror-Watt Stuntman ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2283599351,255,5[/url]), but the Stuntman price is 4 months old and the JuJu's is 11 months old, and another with an Aces High Hot Dogger ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2278396894,614,5[/url]) + ~1.1 pure, but the Dogger has no price. Both would likely be around 3 buds if they had current prices.
I see a single sale at ~3, but that's okay for an old effect and hat.
Upvote if you did overpay
I can actually add on to your proof considering both of your solds were me buying and selling the hat. Here I actually bought it for the Hot Dogger + 2 keys + 1 bud. http://imageshack.com/a/img198/4883/g032.png
I also have the proof here that I sold it for the Sober Stuntman and the Voodoo Juju: http://imageshack.com/a/img824/65/htt6.png
Hope this helps!
Appreciate the input! Your buy would probably come in a bit under 3, but there's no current price on the Hot Dogger so it's not really useable. And the prices on the Stuntman and JuJu are too old to use, though they'd likely be around 3 as well.
Nuts Jefe doesn't match the history?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2307186332
Also as for the unpriced Venenata Dixie, there's another here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17727597 - with a b/o of 2.5-3?
iunno
If you look at the backpack of the person who sold the Elf ([url]http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044181483?time=1391673600[/url]), there's no record between the 6th and 10th. That, plus the fact that everything else listed did change hands between those people makes it pretty safe to assume that the deal went through as stated.
It's possible the Dixie is worth less than 3, but pretty much every trade for them involves other unpriced hats, so... Looking through some of the offers on them, there are some unusual offers that are close to 3, so I don't think it'd be a massive difference if it were included in the range.