Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.26–$0.28

Price Suggestion

~$0.03

669 votes up

434 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Mon, 17 Feb 14 18:08:15 +0000 by Horizon.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Somethings to keep in mind when voting.

Although Refined Metal is a major TF2 currency, it is much smaller market in the PP world. Why would you want to sell refs? Liquidating it to keys is so much easier.

Selling for above 28 cents is beyond unbearable. Yes there may be sales at .30 here and there, but there are also sellers/sales at .25 as well. Backpack.tf's primary goal is to track the most commonly traded price.

REMEMBER that sourceop is down, it was the biggest cash trading site and now it's down forever. Outpost is our only real source of cash trading and it wasn't as popular as sourceop.

.25

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17413127 - 40+ in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17903947 - 80+ in stock

http://bazaar.tf/trade/683590 - 44 in stock

I am keeping it conservative at .26, I can use more than 3 links to back up .26.

.26

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17588815 - 650+ in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16142610 - 440+ in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17793535 - 9 in stock

.265?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17182740 - 4 in stock

.27

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16780426 (If you buy 20 then .25) - sold out

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17987300 - 70+ in stock

.28

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14012933 - 15 ref in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15318714 - Interested buyer a day ago, 150+ in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14929000 - 12 in stock

.29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15565942 - last clear add for refs: 1 month ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14901748 - no comments stating interested for 4 months.

.30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17954200 - no interest for 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13259981 - Last clear interested buyer: 4 months ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17612020 - no interest for 2 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17739017 - no interest for a week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7505351 - Last interested comment: 5 months ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15824878 - Last interested comment: 2 weeks ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12419098 - Last interested comment: 5 months ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15958782 - No interested comment for 2 months

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17860268 - No interest for a week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17529476 - No interest for 3 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17854590 - No interest for a week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13750947 - Last interested comment: 1 month ago

Selling for .30 should not take over a week to sell, it's just ridiculous to sell at that price when there are multiple sellers selling below that.

This is literally all I can find. Demand for ref has dropped greatly compared to the past. You know why? Sellings keys is easier dummy. There is no SourceOp to back me up here. I wish I can provide more evidence, but I simply can't, there are none left.

Fun fact: Keys are $1.80 in the PP market, divide refs by 7 and you get .25-.26. Keys are extremely easy to sell at 7.11. People are just stupid to buy higher than 27 cents.

Feel free to counter / support my proof. Vote based on proof presented, not blindly!

Up and away

You do understand that nearly all of them want you to pay fees making you add more, comes out as ~0.30

No, that's not how pricing works. Just no. No. Check yourself.

Someone will loose more than 4000 USD if this get accepted!

I only 15 USD

Upvote

"lose" well actually their bp value just becomes more accurate if the suggested price is right, they lose an amount of money that was technically never there. :P

no interest in xx days. how do you determine that? have you checked their history bp on multiple days and seen no change in the qty of metal?

i'm asking this because i'm selling keys for pp. and my trade has almost no activity http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16484382. yet, i sold keys worth of a couple hundred bucks in the past days. almost no one is commenting on these trades.

PS: keys go for 1.9, not 1.8 as you stated

Looking at their history is no use, refined metal is such a flexible item that they could've sold it for keys, items, and whatever shenanigans. I go by comments. I search through every, single trade and saw no comments saying "added". Surely there must at least be one added comment within 1 week.

oh btw $1.80 for keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17763155

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14374583

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17860518

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17997743

Also seeing a lot for 1.85, if anything keys in PP should be 1.8-1.85. Again, backpack.tf's goal is to track the most commonly traded price, but I digress.

Oh and your trade has signs of adds, you had an add 3 days ago!...unlike any of my .30 sellers.

my point was that the people who trade pp dont bother much with the add comments. also, with pp trades you must consider the fact that a guy with no rep will try to sell cheaper (and most of the times, fail)

and on my trade last sign of add was 3 weeks ago.

Overall it shouldn't even matter. Some of my .30 sellers lowered prices to .29 because they realized that .30 is no longer sustainable.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17854590 - before .30, now he's selling for .24. 16 in stock.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15958782 - before .30, now .29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17739017 - before .30, now .29

And many more people are selling for .29.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17698808

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17768990

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17156603

Unless there are a huge wave of people that has numerous success selling for .29, I'm fine with my current suggested price.

:) just proving that bp.tf is NOT leading the market.

anyway, ty for adding more proof

He has a point of course. You should check backpack histories for all of them and if suddenly 100 ref disappears without any new items added, we can asume it sold for money. Of course there is 100$ chance that we are right but we need to work with everything we have.

"REMEMBER that sourceop is down, it was the biggest cash trading site and now it's down forever. Outpost is our only real source of cash trading and it wasn't as popular as sourceop. "

Since you have no experience in PP trading [dont see why you should be making a price suggestion you know nothing about but hey.. this is bp.tf so Im not exactly suprised... ] you should be informed sourceop intends to return soon. They are making modifications to the trading section so it will be easier to manage.

Wait SourceOp is returning? I thought they were permanently down.

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6548-goodbye-sourceop-you-wont-be-missed/?hl=source

Yes it is returning. The admins responsible for shutting down the trading section did not have the permission of the creator(s). When they found out, they demanded it be returned. Two admins are being pain in the asses about it comming back.. but a couple like skyrider are working hard to restore it + modify it so it will require less maintainence. That's why I say to ref price suggestions it is abit premature. Personally, not that I bother trying to change prices, I would have waited until the main site for cash trading returned.

o.o

I'd like to see the link of the annoucement.

You missed it. There was a huge thread where 2 admins basically flamed everybody... people were complaining etc, They were even offers by geel of paying for the bandwidth costs just to keep the rep threads up for 1 week.

After the creators got involved, explaining it wasn't their decision and they want it back, the thread was removed, most likely to hide how 2 certain admins behaved towards the entire community.

Well on jan 26th they took it down. On jan 27th they said it will come back (and it came back). It was there then for 3 days and since jan 29 its no longer possible to post there.

"The trade and reputation sections are currently disabled. No ETA of when they will be reopened."

So yeah, you shouldn't rely on that too much, but yes, forever is probably wrong. :)

@Kodorin:

You should have probably read the whole topic you linked. ;)

Many links are still the same as in the closed suggestion from a week ago: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52f522854dd7b8ec778b4568

Some sellers lowered their price and besides that nothing is really new.~

Looks pretty fucking good.

UPVOTE

#frontpage

Enjoy your notification spam :P

upvote

If you have no experience with paypal trading, why are you making a suggestion that requires knowledge of the PP market?

Because I suggested on it once and successful? This is all basic knowledge and mainly common sense. I am almost copy and pasting previous knowledge about PP trading from previous suggestions. C'mon, you moderated for years, you should get some 2 cents from PP. No real PP trading required. :P

I wasn't questioning your competence or your accuracy, but given your attitude on the last suggestion, it seemed odd for you to make one.

I was afraid of getting negged and had 0 knowledge of actual PP trading. Now I don't care about comments points and decent knowledge about PP.

Not questioning your knowledge, but if you have traded in the cash market, you will have a better sense of it. Many have the skill and knowledge to research unusuals and give an accurate price on them. Talk to a seasoned trader though, and they're more than likely to give you an also accurate price from the top of their head. I feel its the same for the cash market, being in it is the best way to get an idea of it.

I have, of course I don't just type up a wall of text with no second-hand information :P

Btw did I put up any inaccurate PP information?

The hilarious part is my suggestion had better proof and I regularly do $2,000+ of cash trades a week. And yet every comment I made had 20+ dislikes on it.

That's really less "hilarious", more "logical"; your attitude was so terrible that people reacting poorly to your suggestion in spite of your experience is pretty expected.

If you would like a more thorough analysis, you are welcome to add me--this is not the place for that discussion.

I returned the attitude I was given first.

I am surprised that it is not you who made this suggestion, given that last time many people agreed on a drop but just were not happy with the lower end.

Because I gave the website one chance. It failed. It lost it's reputation and now I really don't care.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17739017 - is actually .24 instead of .30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17854590 - .29 not .30 o.o

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7505351 - iunno he manage to sell 76 refs.

Last link: Maybe in december 2012? We don't really know.~

Second link is now .24, he changes price ;)

This looks a lot better than your last trade.

Upvote.

Okay, it was late when I posted this, what I meant to say was that this looks a lot better than the previous price suggestion for this.

~~havemercy~~

Well, it's better. I'll lose approximately... mmm, 10-20 USD?

Anyway, is a good suggestion, upvote.

a much needed drop

Ok. The importance of setting an accurate price for ref cannot be overstated. If you are reading this and did not click every link like you should have then luckily I did.

Now, of your proof:

.25

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17413127 - 40+ in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17903947 - 80+ in stock- doesn't have any comments, doesn't specify how to pay or his terms. Not good proof.

http://bazaar.tf/trade/683590 - 44 in stock- Same as 1st OP link.

So really only 1 valid seller. Not gonna freak out about this as it's not in your suggested range anyhow.

I am keeping it conservative at .26, I can use more than 3 links to back up .26.

.26

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17588815 - 650+ in stock-Looks good. Had 2 people add and looks like trades went through. Not the best proof as he only does bulk deals. Still valid, cuz willing to take less.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16142610 - 440+ in stock -Looks like he mainly deals in keys but has a couple adds for ref. Offline as of this posting, last comment is 1 week ago. Decent, as he's still willing to take less.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17793535 - 9 in stock- Cashing out, but looks like sales went through. Kinda thin, as anyone cashing out normally quicksells.

.265?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17182740 - 4 in stock - No adds for ref. I guess that since he is willing it's ok. But then again, a whopping 4 ref...

.27

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16780426 (If you buy 20 then .25) - sold out -Seems he sold a lot really fast. Quicksales?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17987300 - 70+ in stock -Ok.

.28

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14012933 - 15 ref in stock- Looks good, recent sales.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15318714 - Interested buyer a day ago, 150+ in stock - also looks good.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14929000 - 12 in stock -looks good.

.29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15565942 - last clear add for refs: 1 month ago-but has 2 adds over the last day. Might or might not be for refs.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14901748 - no comments stating interested for 4 months. -but again has adds for things as of 14th feb. Might or might not be for refs.

.30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17954200 - no interest for 2 days - appears to be using visibility for his unusual.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13259981 - Last clear interested buyer: 4 months ago-Valid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17612020 - no interest for 2 weeks-valid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17739017 - no interest for a week-valid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7505351 - Last interested comment: 5 months ago-valid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15824878 - Last interested comment: 2 weeks ago-looks like he's sold out and he has another add.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12419098 - Last interested comment: 5 months ago-valid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15958782 - No interested comment for 2 months-valid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17860268 - No interest for a week-young but valid.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17529476 - No interest for 3 weeks-valid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17854590 - No interest for a week-young but valid.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13750947 - Last interested comment: 1 month ago-Valid.

So overall, even though there aren't really very many links to go through and some of them are not good proof, I'd say overall this looks good to me. My only issue is that many of the low end sellers appear to be either novice PayPal traders or are quickselling. I'd like to see the aforementioned extra links at .26 before I upvote for that being the low range.

Currently neutral.

Little update, some sellers changed price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17854590 - before .30, now he's selling for .24. 16 in stock.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15958782 - before .30, now .29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17739017 - beofre .30, now .29

This just supports my .30 sellers argument further, people are realizing that .30 is not sustainable. They are attempting to sell for .29, but sooner or later they will lower it again soon.

Btw How is a week young?

Said it was still valid, bbcakes. I was counting 1 week as young because; as you pointed out more people sell keys for PayPal than ref.

My only issue was the low range; you've done more than enough to prove the high range needs to drop. The guy changing to .24 helps. Got any further ones for .26 to solidify that low end?

I'll look for more, give me a sec

I just looked at TF2-T

.20

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=25176.0 - sold out fast, true quicksell

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17934142 - nearly sold out

.24

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17791666 - he said that he had A LOT available, now ~10 left. Probably qs.

.25

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=27447.0 - sold out.

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=27204.0 - nearly sold out, confirmed 40 sales.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17358478 - 8 in stock

.26

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=26344.0 - 400+ in stock

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16374616 - 350+ in stock

.27

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17492013 - ~10 in stock. Lowered from .28 --> http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=26174.0

btw when you should bold your words when you comment my proof, makes it easier to read. :P

Now this is worthy of my upgoat.

It is due to the fact that keys have a set price, and refined gets more common every day. Keys never changed price, but the value of refined metal relative to keys went down. Call it inflation :/

How else can it happen? Keys (almost) always cost $2.49 from the store, so will always sell for a similar but lower price outside the store whilst there is demand.

Therefore when keys rise in terms of ref, a ref must become worth less as key prices won't change above $2.49 will they?

So ref must fall, else people would be able to scrap keys and make profit, and that could never last because supply would outweigh demand.