Suggestion: Kill-a-Watt Greased Lightning at 70.2–81.9 keys

Price Suggestion

~24.5 keys

kill-a-watt

130 votes up

13 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Fri, 21 Feb 14 16:17:35 +0000 by the submitter.

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Kill-A-Watt Greased Lightning

Original values are used and overpay is applied.

I am disregarding sales that are 1 month old or older. This used to get much higher offers and sales (~8 buds all the way up above 10 when only 1 existed) as recently as a month ago. There have been about 10 unboxed since the start of January, and the value has tanked since then.

Examples:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16764526 - Miami Nights Backwards Ballcap (8.6) - almost 2 months ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17132452 - Miami Nights Charmer's Chapeau (offered on, old price, 7) - just over a month ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17481833 - Added Scorching Flames Jumper's Jeepcap for It's a Secret to Everybody Familiar Fez (Fez price 1 year old, Jeepcap never priced, ~8+) - about a month ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17209577 - 5 pure, sold instantly - just over a month ago

The above sales are too old to use.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17446214 - Stormy Storm El Jefe + 2 buds (~4.2 with overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17978421 - 82 keys (4.1) pure, sold very fast

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17713402 - Cloud 9 Cosa Nostra Cap (3.6, see my suggestion for the Cloud 9 Cosa Nostra Cap pricing it at 3.9-4: [url]http://backpack.tf/vote/id/530669bc4dd7b8444f8b4568[/url])

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17656319 - Cloud 9 Cosa Nostra Cap + sweets (~3.6, yes, seriously, two different sales)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16134063 - B/O of 6, 2 months old (lowered from 14 over time) - shows that some of the old sales are too high

There's also one for 4 buds in the classifieds at the moment.

It's possible that it's worth more, but there's way too damn many of them, and even being themed can't keep its value up.

Why aren't you using sales over a month ago? Rule is only 2-3 months ago aren't valid. You're just ignoring proof

There are several sales around 4, and several around 8, with nothing in between. One set of them has to be an outlier, because a 4-8 bud range is absurd. The sales around 8 are all older than the ones around 4, making them the outliers. It doesn't matter how much older they are, they are no longer representative of the market.

The rule is there to keep prices from being based on outdated sales. Most unusuals get unboxed at a slow, regular rate (or not at all, in the case of Halloween or retired ones). This one got unboxed nearly a dozen times in a month, going from 4 known on Janurary 1st to 14 on the 27th. I doubt there were many, if any, unusuals that were unboxed that much in that small of a time frame. The market's currently flooded with them, and it's making the value tank. If/when the surplus ones go away, the value may rise closer to the 8 it was a month ago. Until then, this price is more accurate.

If 10 Burning TCs were unboxed and put on the market a month after the 155 bud sale, each asking or selling for 75 buds, would you not consider the 155 sale an outlier at that point?

If you think a 4-8 or just ~8 price would be more appropriate, you're free to suggest it yourself.

iz theemd B/O 40 bud

I don't think you should use the cosa as proof tbh

This unusual item is the themed a hat! i think B / O 7 ~ 8 is suitable

I completely agree with your rationale to exclude sales >1 month old, but this still seems low. First, I think the cosa should be priced based on this not the other way around since there are more sales for this hat. Both sales at 4-4.2 sold quickly. I'd take that as your low end and set your high end based on that sale at 5 pure. I know it was a month ago, but it was in pure and it seems to easily get offered ~4 even now. 4-5 here seems reasonable. Then use these sales as proof on the C9 cosa suggestion. It was offered on the cosa, so it seems like the range there would be ~4-4.5

I was thinking about doing exactly that, but I figured 5 pure sale isn't really relevant. It sold so fast, it was clearly made based on the value, even if it is close to recent sales.

Still, I'll take your advice and do 4.2-5 for this and 3.9-4.6 for the Cosa.