Price Suggestion
~575 keys
moon
Unusual Modest Pile of Hat Cloudy Moon
82 votes up
7 votes down
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Previous suggestion is 5 months old. Since previous suggestion, the price on this hat has dropped like a rock. Sales are sort of hard to prove, due to the sheer number of dupes and the fact that only 9 exist in the world. However, one thing is crystal clear - the days of this hat being worth 25 buds are over.


Here's my proof: one solid sale, made in the last week.


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17906591 - One week ago, dmar sells the hat to Gom (http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/36132) for 17 pure. How do I know he made the sale? Well, all we need to do is check his backpack history.


http://backpack.tf/id/76561198079189216?time=1392278400

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198079189216?time=1392364800


dmar's intention was NOT a quicksale, yet he didn't even attempt to stick it out for 18 buds as he mentioned in the trade.


Other Trades:


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14685836 - Another clean one that's been on-market for 4 months with a buyout at 20 pure, much less than even the previous suggestion of 25-27. While I understand that high-value hats can take some time to sell, 4 months is an awful long time to go without any offers even approaching 20 pure.


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18046285 - Another clean one with a 25-bud buyout. However, considering a much cheaper one has been on-market for 4 months, it's very unlikely that this hat will ever get an actual offer above 20 pure.


Leaving the high end at 19, because 20 is clearly too much, but it's very hard to say what the high end for this hat should be. If this turns out to be an issue, please let me know so that I may correct it.

    Offer of c.bubbles modest + 10 pure in past day, miami crone, etc..

      C. Bubbles is valued at 8.9, and that's a current price. Even with +10 that's not even 19 buds. Certainly not 20 pure.


      Miami Crone is unpriced.


      Neither of those offers are outside the range I've posted.


      Also, I'd like to point out that even Gom, the current owner of dmar's hat, has his buyout set at 20. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17968188


      You simply cannot call my numbers inaccurate, not when that's what the market is showing. There's also been a recent trend away from Halloween effects (even the original ones) to 1st-gen in the market as a whole.

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15110666 another 17 sale. Your high end has no basis but 17 flat would be pretty unfair considering the circumstances of these 2 sales + offers. Looks fine to me.

          I actually based my high end on the C. Bubbles Modest + 10 offer, since it was the highest I could find that met the criteria of being priced on the website. However, I wasn't entirely certain that you could do that via offers alone, so I sort of kept silent about it.

            Don't think you can. That offer is 18 anyway

      looks good to me, keep in mind http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14685836 is clean and has wanted ~19-20 since late september


      i owned one ~5 months ago (it was duped) and I sold it for a scorching AA + sunbeams attendant + scorching handle, now im sure a person would be lucky to get that for a clean one


      an upvote for me

      well seem this Suggestion more accurate ..

        Upvote. I have seen these offered and refused on scorching modests which are 20-22.