Time to re-evaluate, last suggestion was using sales from 3 months prior, aka 4 months ago.

Current B/Os

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17451116 15 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18067995 15.5 buds

The other 3 are asking 17-18

Semi useful sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17838698

Sold for ML KE + hearts Private Eye (really old price, current b/os are 4) + 10 keys

b: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198053558381?time=1392278400

a: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198053558381?time=1392624000

Price: 8.7 + ~3-4(?) + 0.5 = ~12.2-13.2, Call this one ~13 buds conservatively

Useless Sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17746228

Miami Tuff Stuff Muffs, Cloud 9 a Fruit Shoot, 1bud, 20 keys, Strange Festive Flamethrower, 2 Bills

More unpriced stuff.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17568746

Sold for a Sulph modest + 1 bud in sweets

(confirmed via BP history and verbal here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52ebe8914dd7b8b41d8b456b)

8 month old price on the modest, OG price was 14-15 so this would be worth ~14 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18083528 B/O 15 buds

Sold for O Fire BOA (unpriced) but has sold for a ML Gibus (unpriced) lol, so that doesn't help.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198058780448

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17870592

Sold for Burning bat FFF + Posion Rebel both unpriced and new.

Ok, well the one sale is 13 at best, and the B/Os are suggesting 15-15.5 so I'm going with 13-15. Clearly 17 is not reasonable based on this info.

Please pitch in if you have other info or can price any of this other stuff!