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~800 keys
13th
Unusual Modest Pile of Hat Stormy 13th Hour
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14 votes down
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Previous price is five months old. The hat itself is very hard to price, and I've only got one sale, but here we go.


The time is mid-November 2013, a different, simpler time when new effects were just starting to come out of "the hype". Three months before this, a price suggestion for Cloud 9 Antlers was posted at 15 buds, which was still standing and fairly current. That's when the sale happened, for the C9 Antlers + 16 pure keys. Since the price for the C9 Antlers was not touched until several months AFTER this hat sold, the old price that was standing at the time must be used.


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15606273


http://backpack.tf/id/76561198000117383?time=1384156800

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198000117383?time=1384243200


The hat is 1 of 1, and has not sold since then, so we must assume that 15.1 remains the current price. It's only a few keys difference from the last suggestion - but it's still a difference.

    Don't know how much of this actually holds true...but the previous owner has 2 offers of 18 pure on his trade.


    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16447066

      The problem with that trade (I actually did look at that) is that the supposed 18 pure offers never actually show up in the trade. The owner, who I'm presuming was acting as a broker for the real owner, mentions that a few people were "collecting 18 pure", and that one person "is at 15". However, since these people who were collecting never actually show up in the Outpost trade, and since the hat never actually sold, it's safe to assume those offers never actually materialized.

      A 3 month old price on a new hat is just too old to use. If you are going to use the antlers as proof you will need to use the current price which would be a more reliable estimation.


      Take a look at the C9 antlers suggestion:

      http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15390913 - sale at ~10 made early december

      Another sale mid-January was ~12.


      10-12 is much more reliable than it's previous price at 15, even for a sale in November