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~300 keys
vivid
Unusual Le Party Phantom Vivid Plasma
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The price fluctuates. They don't seem to sell at 5 buds, which is the current buy-out for a few on outpost. Just a few weeks ago, there were a couple with buyouts around 4.2 and 4.3, which would suggest the max price of 5 is too high. Now, the buy outs are at 4.5 and 5, yet recently one went for 3 buds non-pure. It's pretty clear that 5 buds is a little high, but it's not clear what the low is yet. As an unusual misc, it's probably a solid 3.5 buds without question, despite the 3 bud sale, but as a spy misc, it doesn't seem to sell at 5.

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Proof:


most recent sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17792583

4.2 buds (84 key) buy-out, but traded for aces antlers (3.5-4.2 buds), 1-2 weeks ago.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16816704

sold: misty skull panama = currently valued at 2.7-3 buds, 1 month ago.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17724715

4.5, 2 weeks ago


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17485075

4 buds, 1 month ago, was sold, appears to have been sold at 4, nonetheless, b/o was 4, again suggesting 5 is too high.

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current seller prices:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17676637

Current 4.5 pure buy-out, suggesting 5 is too high


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17192121

5 buds, 1 month, no sale, suggesting 5 is too high.


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17821647

5 buds, 2 weeks no sale

    sales don't match range 4 buds was a firm pure quick sell price current range is fine if you really want to resuggest do like 4.5 or seomthing like that

      I might agree to the range change if not for the 4.2 buyouts, and the 4.2 and 2.7-3 sales. It's pretty clear based upon the sales that the top is 4.5 but the bottom is not certain. That's why I recommended 3.8 instead of 4, because if 4.2 is the average price, it would probably fluctuate to less than 4.2. The 3 bud sale proves that.

        how do you know it sold for a misty panama? and fluctuated prices don't change what the sales are valued at just to answer that question down there

          After having checked again, I think I was mistaken about the misty panama. I thought I had seen the item on the offeror and on the trade history. I cannot verify that anymore.

      Just wondering but where does 3.8 come from?

        The 3.5-4.2 bud sale suggests the bottom price is unclear. With a 4.2 average sale price, I'd anticipate some fluctuation around .3 (4.5 high, 3.9 low). I went with 3.8 instead of 3.9 because of the lower sale.

          I didn't know it worked that way.

            Pricing it at it's highest and pricing it higher than it's lowest is not how it works?


            It's probably unreasonable to price it with a low of 3.5, despite that one sale. That one sale priced it lower than my 3.8 recommendation. I think this unusual is worth more than 3.5 on the low end. So, I bumped it up to 3.8, which seemed more reasonable.

            you cant make high ends and low ends by fluctuations you need proofs

              Ah so it does NOT work that way. The more you (me) know

                then how does it work? explain for us

                I think it's reasonable to expect fluctuations with unusuals. The the 3.5-4.2 unusual is proof of that fluctuation. The 4.5 sales are proof of the high. The 4.2 sales are proof of middle price. I suggest a much higher bottom price than 3.5, one closer to what seemed to be an average of 4.2. As I said, the prices fluctuate on this item. The proof is there.

                  read the rules

            Down vote, 3.8 doesn't appear to be justified


            Range should be 4-4.5 based on your sales data imo

              I'm not actually seeing any proof that it sold for an aces antlers. Only items in his bp the next day are 2 pure in keys and an aussie sniper rifle.

                Like polar bear said, your first sale seems to have traded for gold sniper rifle (2.5-3) + sweets.

                Also, there isn't support for your 3.8 low end, Your lowest sale is at 4 if you count the sniper rifle trade as an outlier. This hat does need a drop, but you should set your low price based on actual trades and not an approximate value. Please resuggest, thanks.