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Aces High Doctor's Sack
Original price: 1.1-1.4 [7 months old]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16998407 - 21 keys [Total: 1.1]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18150330 - Added ~5 keys for Strange Festive Specialized Killstreak Sniper Rifle with Headshots part (26+ keys without considering the killstreak, which I have no clue how to value) + 1.4 keys in sweets. Conservative estimate on this is [Total: 1.15+]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16700958 - 18 keys + about 5 keys in items (S. Sapper was worth a little more back then.) [Total: 1.2]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17636951 - I added 20 keys for a Max. That comes in at slightly over my B/O of 1.6. [Total: 1.6]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17348015 - Stormy Storm Slick Cut [~1.5, 3 month old price, histories don't match, but he has one here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17432955 and here http://backpack.tf/id/76561197994415214?time=1390291200 It looks like it might be duped]
Mini-suggestion for (possibly duped) Stormy Storm Slick Cut:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16996405 - Added 3-4 keys for 1 Bud + B.M.O.C [1.4]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16802236 - 28 keys [1.4]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16305696 - Steaming Letch's LED + 8 keys [1.4]
tl;dr: Total: ~1.4.
End mini-suggestion
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17014535 - B/O of 1.5, open for a month and a half.
Sales: 1.1, 1.15+, 1.2, ~1.4, 1.6, B/O @ 1.5
Final range: 1.1-1.5
The rest is all quicksales (sold within a few days) around a bud, or for unpriced/outdated hats I don't feel like digging up proof for as it isn't necessary.
I don't know why an Aces High hat would go up, either. Even just a little bit.