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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17659948 - sold with a miami Desert for a miami tree and a logo hot dog ((5+1.1 [offer of 1 bud on hotdog, outdated price seems close enough])*0.9=5.5. 5.5-2.9 (Desert)=2.6)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17056339 - sold with a c9 billy for a burning spartan. offered. no overpay. (6.9-2.6=4.3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15483088 - beams crown 3.5 months ago (7.5)
These are the only sales in the last 3 or so months as far as i can tell. beams crown is an outlier due to its age
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17541630 - looks like he sold both for 6 pure? - http://backpack.tf/id/76561197997091147?time=1393747200
5 buds and all the keys have the same previous owner
And one was offered on / sold for a GBH pot - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18346576
Pot may have an outdated price at 5.5, but check out the recent offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15261649
~5 - TW stovepipe + ~1.1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16693247
~5 - MN noble nickel
has some other offers that seem decent.
I'm a bit concerned about the low end here given two more sales that might be closer to 4-5. This will require more digging into. It's especially hard to call 7.5 an outlier and not 2.6 when they are both really far from 4.3.