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Yeeeeehaw! Time to update this price. (Refresh for this matter.)
Current Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17302147 - 28 Key b/o, 1 Month.
-- c/o of Disco Beatdown Cadaver's Cranium minus 10 Keys. (1 Bud ~ 1.5 Buds.)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12941670 - 24 Key c/o. 2 Buds b/o. 7 Months.
***Considering outliers, due to the fact of how long the trades are and how persistent they're being.***
Solds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17278804 - 18 Keys. (Disregarding the Engi Set.)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17041623 - 16 Keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16673158 - 1 Bud.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16572370 - Slightly under 1 Bud. (Skeptical on the confirming price.)
***All solds are about two months old.***
I dont think your sales at 1 sold for 1 bud flat. Why buy a hat for 1 bud and then re-sell it for the exact same amount? Why would sinister pay 1 bud and then re-sell it for only 16 keys? Probably need to to research and see what they actually sold for.
If it did sell for a bit less, it probably still within' the range. Let me speculate on that one for a minute.
Sometimes, people buy the item, finds out it's not to their expectations, and just tries to resell it for the price they bought. (Sometimes higher, but this game knows it's economy too well.) I've played a lot of MMOs and seen that shit happen so many times.
I won't dismiss the fact that they probably are trying to resell. Who knows?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17301480 - looks like sold for a smoking slug which is close to the high end of ~1 buds