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Overpay calculated to the ones who offered at .9 the median of the BPtf Price
Open Trades:
1) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18073463 -> BO of 6.5 | Still open: Day 9 (+17) | Clean | Check Closed Trade #1 for how he bought it
2) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16652511 -> BO of 10 | Open for 2 months | Last offer being 10 days ago
3) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17398408 -> BO of 10 | Open for 1 month
Listed COs
Burning Glove 4.4 + Scorching Handyman Handle 2.4 = 6.8 - Invalid | 3 weeks old and no longer in the person's BP
Sunbeams Connoisseur's Cap 6 + 1 = 7 | Price updated 6 months ago - Invalid | 1 month old and no long in the person's BP
Burning Private Eye 6.8 + Bill's (.3) = 7.1 | Price updated 5 months ago - ??? | 3 weeks old and still in the person's BP but now has a Burning Attendant
4) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18229255 -> BO of 9 | Open for 4 days
Closed Trades:
1) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17666498 -> BO of 6 | Was open for 17 days | Continuation = Open Trade #1
From Previous Suggestion:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52c8a5de4cd7b87e348b4568
1) [SALE] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16466242 -> Burning Cage (7.6) + Peace Veil (4.9) = 11.5 -> Burning Towering Pillar (10)
Towering -> 4 month old price. Despite the calculated overpay, he still managed to pay over the true value of the Towering Pillar.
One of these has to be overpriced and I'm pretty sure it isn't the Veil (No one will get sick of Circling Miscs)
2) [SALE] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16433293 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16028745 (Ctrl + F = Feri or the hat names) | Same guy as Open Trade #3
Birdcage (7.6) + Scorching Mining Light (2.5) = 10.1 -> Scorching Head Warmer (11.5)
Second link shows that he offered on the Head Warmer which means overpay
3) [CLOSED] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16536638 -> Same guy as From Previos Suggestion #2
Birdcage (8.4) + Scroching Mining Light (2.8) = 11.2 | Has a BO of 10 | Wasn't sold for this
Solid Sales:
1) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16114145 -> Buyer = Open Trade #3
Secret to Everybody Rimmed Raincatcher (5.7) + Professional Killstreak Direct Hit -> Birdcage (8.4)
Not sure how Prof Killstreaks were priced at that time so I'm leaving this at a solid 6 at the moment.
2) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16999844 -> Sold for a Beams Milkman (4.7) | BO of 7.5 | Buyer = Open Trade #4
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198041547098?time=1391241600 -> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198041547098?time=1391328000
Implications on the other finished trades:
1) 5.1 [7.6 + 4.9 = 10 implying that it has to be equal to 10, the Towering, we devalue only the Cage since we consider the demand on Veils]
2) 7.6+ [Since overpay was calculated, this implies that the Cage or the Mining Light needs a raise | Prices without overpay = 11.2 -> 11.2]
3)
6.8[Didn't sell for pure | 8.4 + 2.8 = 10 implying that it has to be equal to 10, the BO, it'll be 6.8 | No overpay here since it's his pure BO]Conclusion:
Sold for 6 and 4.7 most likely an outlier.
Lowest BO being 6.5 [6 is invalid since it's same guy that changed BOs]
Where's the sale at 6?
Solid Sale #1. He added a Professional Killstreak Strange Direct Hit and some other crap that wasn't mentioned in the trade. Since the hype for Killstreaks were still high 2 months ago, pricing his sweets at .3-ish seems fair. Feel free to provide counterproof by adding the dudes and asking what the guy added :3
Edit:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16715901
He sold the DH for an Aces High Mongolian which justifies the .3, in my opinion.
In terms of BPtf, the Mongolian is at 1.4 though.
No, this doesn't make the DH worth 1.4.