Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 7.11 ref

As is the case with all these key suggestions, I’d like to remind the voters to keep comments to those directly assessing the proof provided. Feel free to post counterproof or to critically analyze the links presented, but leave all other comments for discussion threads in the forums.

What is relevant here:

- Personal experiences on the key trades

- Additional proof / Counter-proof

- Issues with the provided proof

- An independent conclusion based on the proof provided

We value the community opinion and take it seriously. Off-topic discussions severely distract us from gauging the community opinion on the proof provided.

In order to try to keep discussion on-topic, spam and unnecessary off-topic discussion (including discussion of the broader economy) will be hidden. Abuse and rudeness will not be tolerated. For discussions on the economy and other tangential topics, we recommend the forums; http://forums.backpack.tf/

For discussion on keys in regards to the impact on the economy, this topic in particular is recommended; http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6090-the-one-and-only-key-price-topic/

For concerns about how the site is treating comments in key suggestions, feel free to start a topic in the following forum; http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/forum/20-general-website-discussions/

These rules and guidelines apply to all key suggestions, past and present. In order to reduce potential confusion, the mod team is posting this summary in order to help bring attention to—and remind users of—these policies.

Credits to Clever / Kaushu

I remember the old days when someone actually upvotes the key suggestion they will get showered by dislikes ,but looks like most of the people have accepted the rise of keys. Checked the proof. Upvote.

Some more proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18370460 - 7.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18255350 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17300160 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18237760 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16307576 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18344765 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18381554 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18363101 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18327164 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16361333 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18271866 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17917528 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16361344 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18373970 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18274991 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18370040 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18370605 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18287221 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17776683 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18343929 - 7.11

Made sure that most of this aren't duped. Oh and check this:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/196859045

Most of the trades on this search are buyers for keys 7.11 and over.

Guess that backfired on me :\

As much as I don't like a rise, it was impossible for me to get keys at 7 ref each within the last 5 days even though I had a trade up on Outpost and Buy Now trades on bazaar...which means 7 ref is out of range at least for me.

HOLY SHIT!

I just got 1 (!) key at 7 ref after a drought of 5 days....downvote..nah, that was prolly a quicksale, so still upvote from me.

I died a little inside.

But yes. The lucky.tf bot also buys for 7.33 (it rarely has the scrap to buy though).

put one up for 7, instant 9 adds+4 trade offers. Too bad, upvote.

http://i.imgur.com/LF5jcAB.png

that seems as a QUICKsell to me, gonna upvote

proof that 7.00 ref isn't possible?

try and buy one for 7 ref

I just did

Whats your proof?

Then post a picture of the trading history of it then.

I simply don't know how to. And even if i did, it would just be a waste of time

If you really cared about the suggestion giving a screen shot would not be a waste of time.

I do, but how does one trade help significantly?

If 100 people but up a screen shot/link of them buying a key at 7 ref we would have 100 pieces of proof, if people said how does my one trade help anything and it's just a waste of time and did not show anything we would not have much counter proof at all, just like now.

point taken, but I still dont know how to

proof is sufficient, and as much as it pains me to do so, upvote

just asking, but did you actually check your proof? I mean for example:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17655096 - 7.22 out of stock

He still has about 8 keys left, but claims he's out of stock, maybe he hasnt sold a single key at all

I haven't had any trouble buying them for 7 ref, but it does appear to be a pretty quick thing. And there's bots buying keys for 7.22?! o.O

Keys will always be sold for more that the asking price. How many times do we see someone selling for 7.33 and buying for 7. its always a range based on what this website sets as a base price. We should use caution when when increasing base currency prices.

I have 160 keys (no even close to the amount d0 has) but my heart did not jump for joy when I saw this suggestion because it's just going to be harder to buy keys for 7 ref or 7.11. Second it's not like I'm going to resale all those keys for 7.33 because that would be like 1172.8 refined and who wants that much refind in their backpack at one time. Third my backpack will only go up about 4 ref if this suggestion gets passed and d0s will only go up about 3.2 keys which is really not much profit when you have 400 + keys.

Just something to think about not counter proof or support proof.

Had trouble buying at 7 ref. Ilike the organised proof. Upvote from me.

Also, brace yourselves for the hate.

lol, blindpolarbear's sick of having to remove comments

I'm sure there will be more proof coming, but so far it looks accurate enough

You'll get warned for comments like this - keep it clean!

Stay on topic - if you wanna discuss memories go to the forums.

~~Oh gawd not another bs raising the key again~~ Good proof, looks like you put alot of work into getting this correct, upvote.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18238460 <--- Ive bought 3 at that price, have had 4 or 5 people ask for change rounding up to 7 ref when selling items of mine

7 still seems like a common trading point in the key market right now, what we've missed for the past 2 months before baloo pulled out a combo breaker was the hype around keys

Proof doesnt seem sufficient atm, Id advise gathering more

EDIT: just looked through my sent trade offer history, had a few willing sellers at 7, but they sold during a ~16 hour time period

Double Edit coz yolo: Might also wanna get some quicksells up at 7, still not enough proof imo (and no solds at 7.11 whatsoever)

4 people<

In 1 week<

Compared to big mound of sales above 7 ref.

Need more counterproof than that.

actually comes out to 6-8 after a little over a week

I'm only one guy, I cant match his proof using my own trades

and back when keys were 7, buying 3 a week at 7.11 was valid counter-proof

Please be a little bit less aggressive towards people who are actually trying to contribute to the discussion. He's not attempting to completely discount the proof provided. He's giving his person experience. If 100 people just like Kevin gave their experience showing 6-7 trades at 7 ref a pop, we'd have 600-700 links. We try to encourage posts so more people will feel like contributing rather than scaring away people with such a negative response.

You actually have no proof at all, I would love to get some screenshots / links all you showed was a trade with no comments on it.

Yes, I pulled a "combo-breaker" that single-handedly raised key prices. Its not like there was a multitude of buyers already willing buying for 7.11 ref or higher prior to the creation of my suggestion. You think he has no links of sold keys, yet your only counter evidence to this suggestion is your buying trade which currently has no comments, and only the sole trust in your word that you've bought keys for that amount. The irony in this rests in the fact that the suggestor has provided a large number of links of key buyers at 7.11 refined or higher and to imply that they're not getting adds while you, buying at 7 refined, are getting them is simply poorly reasoned.

PS: As already stated by [ZfG] Rawry,Screenshots would greatly aid you in your argument since currently this based solely on your word.

http://i.imgur.com/9cGR5xx.png <--- 2 examples of change being rounded to 7 ref

http://i.imgur.com/LsMMqt3.png

http://i.imgur.com/sijwwEH.png

http://i.imgur.com/ot8VI29.png

http://i.imgur.com/XZKFI3Z.png

http://i.imgur.com/taRjUsW.png

gonna go on a key server tomorrow and get some more

since I know you're all gonna point this out, most of the 100% ref trades took place a week+ ago, and the others were items so arent defined counters <--- reasons why Im neutral on this suggestion

7.11 is already in the range, d0 needs to add quicksells at 7.11 and a bunch of unsuccessful buyers at 7 to earn my upvote

also, (putting this at the end coz this is gonna get a whole bunch of dislikes, but w/e) I had a key buying trade up at 7 ref before it got accepted and afterwards, as well as opening the main page and going on every now and then seeing key sellers in the classifieds, and it made a world and a half of difference. I never thought that suggestion should've gotten accepted, but apparently everyone and their bot mothers are buying at higher, so who am I to say otherwise

EDIT: forgot all my trade offer proof xD, I'll add that with the server sellers tomorrow

Firstly, you said: "I've bought 3 at that price [7 refined]", yet in your screenshots I only see two sales. One that dates back to February 27th which is currently 7 days ago, and the other dates back to February 20th which was 14 days ago and even predates the previous key suggestion. This suggestion is solely focused on the transactions between keys and metal, and not with outside sales in items.

Most buyers I know do not care about that 1 scrap difference when they ask for change because they're not interested in the 1 scrap more when they buy your item, they're interested in your item. Back when keys were almost all the way up to 6.44 refined, people were still treating them as 6 refined when asking for change because its just a lot simpler. Also if we want to talk about some of those links, the second one of you providing 2 refined change for someone paying 2 keys for your Festive Medi Gun is actually valued at 1.7 keys (5 refined/ 7 refined = ~.7 keys), even though backpack.tf price is 1.8 keys, so if we're going to use items and how much people value them at using backpack.tf prices, then you provided change for a key being 7.66 refined since 80% of 1 key is equal to roughly 5.66 refined.

Your whole argument is rather poor since the only two metal transactions you have are a week apart and the earliest being 7 days old. It really doesn't seem like 7 refined is that common at all when put in that light.

If buyers dont care about a scrap difference, why is nobody apparently selling at 7, but at 7.11 instead?

Anyways, posting my additional proof would be pointless, hyper just secured my vote below, I can always get them up since imma lying chicken rather than a truthful bear

''You guys are ruining the market by trying to profit. ''

You guys buy and sell keys above the market price.

You dont get it.

Keys are worth 7 ref at the moment but everybody buys/sells (sold) for 7.11, then we raise the price to 7.11 because backpack.tf is a pricing guide. d0 is not doing this because profit, but to keep the prices up to date.

You're forgetting the fact that the prices will never be "up to date" with your standards because people buying/selling for a profit will raise them higher every time the suggested price becomes the "correct price"

Thats the answer,I wanted to see.

But you will never make those to understand it..

I call it "The Vicious Cycle of TF2 Pricing"

Bp.tf makes keys 5 refined-TF2OP. sells them for 5.11-Bp.tf uses it as "proof"-Keys rise to 5.11-TF2OP. sells for 5.22-etc.etc.

posting a classified here for 7 ref gives me at least 5 instant adds

upvote, 7 ref sells way too fast ;o

http://i.imgur.com/OsRd23I.png All my recent key buys for 7 ref; 8 total, 1 involving an item + change, 6 involving non-standard keys (I can show my history where I 1:1'd them for regular keys if requested).

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17639212 You can see some keys that were sold to other people on my outpost trade.

Please remember that the goal of a suggestion is to provide a public forum to analyze proof and present counterproof. My personal trades are only a small part of the market, yes, but sometimes the only way to get a complete picture is through many smaller parts. Providing more proof and discussing what has been presented is much more productive than whining or attacking other users.

non-standard keys have their own effective exchange rate to metal... while i have no doubt they can be sold at 1:1 normal key there are other times when that would be considered quickselling the non-standard key.

http://puu.sh/7j3fS.png

2 in one day at 7 ref

agreed

7 ref is hard to find because it goes so quickly

7.11 ref seems about right because keys still have value on them

Okay. The key price suggestion has been brought up again. It had been brought up several times and almost six months ago, it was irrelevant to assume that keys wouldn't rise when back then keys would rise almost once a week! However, within the last month, the community has had time to think about a possible key rise, and this "month" long pause had not only given the community time to let the ever so unstable "tf2 barter economy" take a stable foundation in these "price listings" and "trade offers" but has had the community collaborate a PLETHORA of new price suggestions for hats, miscs, weapons, and other tf2 related tradable items.

Now the last paragraph seams like a little bit of a rant, which i do dearly apologize for, however, Following up on what was stated earlier, The community has been busy with so many new suggestions, The suggested prices were proven stable unless otherwise overruled by a different set of "proof" led by the same or a different person. But couldn't the stable prices of these suggested items be considered "unstable" if the base value of this games "barter economy currency" was consistently changing? Vast amounts of suggested item price ranges would need to be redone over time to fit the price range of the currency they are based on in the first place. All through teaming up for say one or two weeks to ever so slightly change the way people perceive tf2 trading.

Now Im just going to get straight to the point. But before i do that i want to clear things up that i am in no way trying to present my opinion; This is a place of presenting physical statistical value where the admin's and community's time is very valued, i understand. However, I had also noticed the community seems to just "go with the flow" and that not alot of time is put into making the game as assuring to the needs of the community. What im trying to say is, It really tends to aggravate me when i see a good suggestion, with maybe a few loopholes make it because some users just go "upvote" or "downvote". Have some backbone, and give some voice. The community is the "group" not the "individual", and with this once again i humbly apologize if i seem like im ranting but I assure you this is within the subject of key price suggestions.

Getting back on what i meant to say was the real "point" for the last paragraph, The tf2 economy has been revolving around several sites, mostly backpack.tf, which is quite astounding, that a large sum of people use one site for many things involving their personal trade affairs. However, it seems like bp.tf has a tendency for a majority of the "proof" given by the community to be revolved around tf2outpost, bazzar.tf, etc. But why? Why has the economy fallen short of what could be a more open and more stable economy when a majority of the proof is presented through tf2outpost and bazzar.tf? Why has no one chosen to use other means of trades such as the community market? And yes, I understand the community market does seem rather difficult to incorporate as a means of stabilizing the tf2 economy, BUT, its still there. The steam market place is literally incorporated into the game, It brings up physical statistical value of how many people bought "so and so" item for "so and so" price on "so and so" day. The steam market has had items give jumps in value such as when Australiums were overpriced to s***. And pardon my french but, its quite astounding when a australium sticky bomb launcher goes from almost $250 dollars to less than $100. The steam market can provide money based values for how much items would be worth usually in "metal" by just taking in the value of the item on the market and relating it to another items like keys.

Also pointing out, if this is a "barter based economy" why has the thought of actually basing the iconic currency of "keys" around the base currency of "metal" more like it should be?(By iconic currency i mean so many people idol keys as the major currency of tf2 in a way where that is what comes to mind the first thing someone says something related to tf2's economy. Also base currency in a way where metal is continuously spawned in the world of tf2 each week through crafting weapons, hats, misc, etc. Into such metal unlike keys which have to be bought.) It seems futile for the community to go on with pricing a primary currency without any accurate amount of base currency to back it up. Lemme, explain for those who don't understand. Take the US economy for instance, the amount of Dollars printed are based around how much gold, how much "valuable metal" is in the treasury. The more gold, the more dollars would need to be printed in order to keep the value of the dollar consistent. Using this and stats.tf's ever so reliable item quantity check, as of the time of this statement being posted, there is 2158989 refined, 1262936 reclaimed, and 2164707 scrap metal in existence while there are 848518 keys in existence. Now with some simple division and multiplication, the scrap and reclaimed would be bumped up to the equivalent of 240523 refined for the scrap (divide the total scrap by nine for each scrap is 1 ninth of a refined) and 420978 refined for the reclaimed (divide the total reclaimed by three for each reclaimed is 1 third of a refined) Totaling 2820490 refined metal in existence with still 848518 keys in existence. Divide the metal by how many keys there are and the total of each key would be valued at 3.324019054398375.... refined or 3.3 refined per key. All based on physical statistical value given by the stats.tf site which shows how the key could possible be more accurately valued based on metal. And the metal is a funny little thing, like in the world, gold can be found through natural means of it being created through chemical reactions deep inside the earth or mined up and then heated, condensed, and polished for actual valued use. In tf2, it is spawned through people junking there weapons, hats, miscs, etc. And also pointing this out, yes, there are people who try to farm these valuables and might say that stats.tf is inaccurate to the people with private backpacks. But steam has fixed the farming for the most part (still some people farming with actually playing on multiple accounts) and who is to say that in REAL life people don't just try to work multiple jobs or do multiple tasks because they want more "money" than the next person because they can. And who is to say that despite stats.tf not displaying private backpacks, there are people in REAL life with possible money hidden under sofas, in lost safes, money that is stowed away that could be considered into the large equation of how much money is printed to back up the base currency the "valuables" in the US treasury. Well, the community surely can, but has fallen short on doing so just like the community is falling short on trying to outsource a very limited means of suggesting more accurate pricing over items so that the community can actually play the game in a sense of everything feeling alright.

In the end of all this the community is a powerful group of individuals with opinions that can vary, but this discussion this, this tenacious vibe to go out and be a part of something is slowly dying. People, start getting deep into what can be done to support this ever rotting away economy. And yes, i am part of the community and yes, I have fallen short on these statements above and i apologize for that. I apologize as well for the lengthiness and the time taken to read this post. But this community can be set in the right direction, it just takes the creativity, poise, determination, and acceleration of different parts of the website, the people, the economy, and the admins that could possibly read this and agree or disagree to put forth change in this "barter economy". If you have finished reading this, i humbly thank you once again, and community: your strong, but could get stronger through the help of others.

-Steven

(P.S. Guys, don't dog on the admins, they are part of the community too. It takes a little bit of explanation and understanding of the rules, but they can listen to the community as the community instructs themselves.)

As stated in my very first post, these kinds of posts are not appropriate in a suggestion. It simply detracts from our evaluation of the proof. These opinions should be presented in the forums using the links I provided.

Posts in suggestions should be limited to an evaluation of the proof. You ask why outpost? Because it is the easiest way to provide documentation. We leave suggestions up for a reason - to allow people to post screenshots of their own trades wherever they may occur, be it in a trade server or elsewhere. That's all I'll say here. Feel free to discuss in the forums

I'm not sure whether or not this falls under the accepted type of comment d0 is asking for, and I apologize in advance if it isn't.

Just because outpost is the easiest way to obtain proof, doesn't mean its the most accurate proof. The most common word thrown around on trade servers when outpost is mentioned is 'highballers.' And I half agree, the majority of trades on outpost are deliberately made to be higher than bp.tf prices so they can profit.

I think Steven's idea for using the steam market to help pricing is a good idea, as well as including some screenshots from trades made outside of bf.tf and outpost.

Anyway, I do rarely see people selling for 7 refined anywhere, so eliminating it from the range is agreeable, 7.11 is a good new price.

Buyers -

http://bazaar.tf/trade/705900 - 7.22 (bot)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/705874 - 7.22 (bot)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/191384 - 7.22 (bot)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/688991 - 7.22

http://bazaar.tf/trade/709431 - 7.11

http://bazaar.tf/trade/709963 - 7.11

http://bazaar.tf/trade/707420 - 7.11

http://bazaar.tf/trade/714113 - 7.11 automated

http://bazaar.tf/trade/714122 - 7.11 automated

http://bazaar.tf/trade/714056 - 7.11 automated

http://bazaar.tf/trade/705702 - 7.11 automated

http://bazaar.tf/trade/714113 - 7.11 automated

http://bazaar.tf/trade/713983 - 7.11 automated

Good man! (though I've never used bazaar myself XD)

Buyers -

7.25 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zljka/h_29_ref_w_4_keys/

7.22 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zkz2t/h_722_ref_each_w_keys/

7.22 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zk3kr/h_metal_722_each_w_9_keys/

7.16 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zmqa0/h_1433_refined_metal_w_2_keys/

7.11 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zmuyx/h_a_ton_of_metal_w_keys_711_ref/

7.11 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zmvwr/h_metal_w_keys_711_ref_each/

7.11 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zjgy1/h_1422_ref_w_2_keys_711/

7.11 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zh4a3/h_lot_of_metal_w_keys_at_711_ref_each/

7.11 - http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1zfqx1/h_711_refined_each_w_6_keys_at_711_refined_each/

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=10037186 - 7.33

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=10041076 - 7.11

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=10030287 - 7.11

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=10049384 - 7.11

different sources, different sources everywhere! Solidified my upvote

Downvote, 7 ref still happens.

It isn't a common selling point. That's what this suggestion is arguing.

Just try to buy a key at 7 ref when someone puts one up for sale, I bet it will be gone in less then 40 seconds

Then wait instead of buy for more, time is money and that extra scrap costs your patience. For those who wait until they get one for 7 ref they deserve it.

I agree so true, I guess it's just hard to take the time to buy a key for 7 ref when you need it right away and keys are the most traded thing besides ref..........

Could I get some real proof to that?

Their trade bots paying 7.11 ref for key, why would anyone sell key right now for 7 ref, not mention 7 ref quicksells like instantly should't be included in the range.

7 refined does sell quickly and it is possible to get more, but its still quite a regularly traded price point since its so simple. I care less about the speed of the sale than I do the number of sales occurring at that price point.

I've still been buying keys for 7 ref...and i'm not actively trying...

The points you get from key suggestions isn't actually that great, given how much time you have to spend on the suggestion. Plus, the comment is spam.

how about accurate (or more accurate) prices?

Buyer for 7.33: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18379956

Yes and he got his keys really quickly, judging by his backpack he ran out of metal in 2 hours. Additionally; he is overpaying to get the keys quickly, just because I buy an All-father for 2 keys doesn't means it should rise since in this case 7 ref seems to be said to happen regularly, but there is a lack of screenshot-proof in many of the comments. For wealthy people a key may be 0.06% of their bp value and they'd have no problem spending an extra scrap to turn it into a key, while less wealthy users would try all they can to get for less.

Is almost impossible to buy keys at 7 refined upvote. But 7.22 is starting to be common around outpost.

We really need this. I put one up for 7.22 ref, and at least 5 people added me for it, after I had sold it. Upvote

Ehhh...Ummmm talking about keys traders having keys for 7.33 are rising trying to get profit. Soon 7.11 will be as rare as getting a key for 7 refined.

I dont think bots should count because they buy for more so that you sell some too them

heh 7ref was quicksell before the last price suggestion XD but yeah, it's even more of a quicksell now and it's trivial to find buyers at 7.22+

I Think before I upvote i would like to see some proof of unsolds at 7 ref. i need to know that 7 ref isn't happening, not just that 7.11 is, thats already in the range and we know that sales happen at that price.

my mistake meant to say failed buyers at 7 ref

Presume 4000 keys are turned into metal a day. Presume there are 8000 buyers.

Guess why buyers fail? Can't buy if no one sells, and that is why prices rise over time. Basically too damn many buyers.

Buying for 7.11 ref also takes some time.

People are always selling above key price (If bp.tf shows 7.11, they only sell for 7.22 and so on).

Upvote

And I thought the price had stabilized. D:

Oh well, the proof is pretty damn good, and it's hard to find many solds for 7 ref or unsolds for the listed price.

Also, I tried buying keys for 7.11 and selling for 7.22 (one at a time...), and it went relatively well. Sometimes I got a seller in an hour, sometimes in a day, but a key usually didn't last more than that time.

Upvote.

Earlier today I made a rant about how the keys should stabilize, but I was warned that this is not the right spot to discuss about that. So I made my own proff that the key prices are crazy and definately should stabilize.

I put my own keys to sell for 7.22 on bp.tf only, and in less than 20 minutes 6 people bought keys (and another 2 sent trade offers) from me proving to myself that the key prices should, and that's my opinion, have a wider range and stabilize.

So, to one reason or another, the price should be 7.22 because that's already a quicksell, and I think the range should be 7-7.22 or maybe 7.11-7.22

Proof:

http://i.imgur.com/yCqW9D6.png

http://i.imgur.com/dmvhSGe.png

And at the moment I am writing this 2 more people bought keys.

My backpack showing lots of metal: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991829055

Oh, and another one: http://i.imgur.com/RIqG6N9.png

Every key is a quicksell. If you don't like this suggestion range maybe you can make a counter-suggestion.

No one sells keys at 7 refined flat anymore.

People do, but they get snapped up in under a minute.

they are selling for 7.33, I just sold for 7.33 actually

I just sold my key for 7.22 without even making a trade on it, someone just actually randomly traded me

Really don't like the idea of keys keep going up and up and up. But if there is sufficient proof...

~~Owns 424, downvote~~

There is definitely some competition @ 7.11. I put up a buying trade @ 7.11 expecting a rather quick trade but I was apparently wrong. I got lucky having a guy sell me a key for 7.05 on a trade server.

I have not been able to see a single key appear @ 7 refined since it sells so quickly. 7 is definitely a quicksell. Going to have to upvote.

"In order to try to keep discussion on-topic, spam and unnecessary off-topic discussion (including discussion of the broader economy) will be hidden. Abuse and rudeness will not be tolerated. For discussions on the economy and other tangential topics, we recommend the forums; http://forums.backpack.tf/"

Well,Well lets see if i dont get warned by cleverpun or polar in the forums then.

Personally, Ive been Neutral ever since keys broke the 5 ref barrier. Decent proof however A LOT links showing 7 ref not possible will be nice.

In the 6 or so months I have been a mod, I have issued a total of 2 warnings in the forums compared to hundreds on the site. We encourage discussions in the forums. Suggestions, however, are not the place for broader discussions about the economy.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18325675 Had 4, sold all in less than 10 minutes. Had 6 invites, only 3 people actually got any keys.

7 is extremely easy to sell at.

Upvote

I bought two keys yesterday for ~7ref

But i rly think that the price should be 7.11-7.22/7.33 because 7.11 is getiing rarer and rarer while 7.22/7.33 is getting more ususal

upboat

i thought d0 doing this just to keep the keys price up to date, not for profit

Exactly my point, the proof is good but the 400 keys+ is misleading, its sad how i got a warning for pointing that out too.

I'm sorry but that's the dumbest thing I've heard all day. Manipulating price is for profit, what other alternative is there... What does manipulate mean? To change something in an unfair way for self gain.

I'm not saying d0 is manipulating but what you just said is retarded.

Honestly think there should be some proof of keys not possible at 7 ref :/ Downovte for now.

7 ref is the most stable for a long time... I'm cashing out before the bubble bursts and everything goes dirt cheap.

More active buyers proof -

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17186351 - 7.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18267370 - 7.22 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15932652 - 7.22 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18388749 - 7.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18013622 - 7.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18072018 - 7.11 (more if 2+)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16361337 - 7.11 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16361345 - 7.11 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18380976 - 7.11 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16361347 - 7.11 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18347006 - 7.11 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14728122 - 7.11 (bot)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18390835 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18388197 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17205326 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18301463 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17124173 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16719686 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18379834 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18375100 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18350776 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16679301 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17627063 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18381194 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16477622 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18361473 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13729794 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17991293 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17333192 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12024968 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18340993 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18204875 - 7.11

@people who add me, keep the discussion in the forums or here - don't add me.

It's VERY easy to found a buyer at 7.11 - if quickbuyers and resellers are willing to pay 7.11, I think 7 should get out of the range.

If 7.00 ref is going to be out of the range, I think you need proof that 7.00 ref is not possible / unlikely to happen

More active buyers -

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13599180 - 7.22 (bot - changed from 7.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18224227 - 7.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18403218 - 7.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18244072 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18340350 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18415929 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18387500 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18409401 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18369420 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18285644 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18149621 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18388678 - 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18368162 - 7.11

You seem to not understand...this suggestion is up because people are already buying at 7.11 ref and selling at 7.22 ref.

I don't understand how people still blame backpack.tf for the rise of keys in comparison to refined; it has some influence but it is a site which keeps track of the prices; so price changes happen BEFORE the suggestion is put up.

I just sold 7 of my keys for 7.33 ref each. I don't really know how to prove it, but I have around 50 extra ref in my inventory.

how to prove: go into your inventory history, take screenshot, post on some photobucket like website, link here

Thanks mate

I traded with a bot the other day for 7.22 a piece. Keys are definitely on the rise

i bought a key for 7 ref in 10 minutes. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18340209

just my one cent.

Am I the only one who thinks bots should not count towards price suggestions?

nope, your not alone

------------why?

Bot sales at or above 7.11 (i.e. when a bot sells to a steam user) can be written off because of the excuse "they are there for convenience". This means that the buyer has given up finding users trying to sell below such a price because all of them are offline or are snatched up quickly, so they don't mind paying an extra scrap to save time.

However, if multiple automated services are buying at or above 7.11, people don't sell to them "for convenience", they sell to them because they are getting more for their key. The fact that a bot is buying should be considered even more valid than if it was a steam user buying. The sheer volume of 7.11 bot buyers proves that anything below is a quicksell, because you could instantly sell the key for 7.11 anyway.

I don't know why any informed trader would sell a key below 7.11.

Also, if this isn't on topic enough, here is some proof. I found these links on the first page of outpost by simply searching for people buying keys with refined.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18400028 - 7.33 bulk buyer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17186351 - 7.33 buying and selling (overstocked on ref?) - Name suggests perhaps buying at 7.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17187940 - 7.11 buyer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16719686 - 7.11 buyer

If you wanted to be a smart trader, you could specify "7.11" or "7.22" in the notes and have an even easier time of finding buyers at or above the new suggested price.

They don't, its already been said multiple times by moderators because bots are used mainly for convenience. I also made this point in my own proof on my key suggestion.

http://i1372.photobucket.com/albums/ag339/gravedoctor/keyproof1_zps024a3d27.jpg

http://i1372.photobucket.com/albums/ag339/gravedoctor/keyproof2_zps0a3d5286.jpg

http://i1372.photobucket.com/albums/ag339/gravedoctor/keyproof3_zps17c0e272.jpg

I was able to buy keys at 7.11 and sell keys at 7.33

First two are selling, last is a combination of both.

I know right, but you can't do anything about the community, also to make sure it never was backpack.tf's fault.

no no no backpack tf has nothing to do with the price of anything going up they only represent the "current state of the market."

Yes, why are you saying that to me when I was proofing that to Qemal007 ITA, lol

sarcasm my good man

Have a helping hand (looks like you don't need it too much but why the hell not)

7 key quicksales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18406734

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18406531

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18406108

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18406067

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18405856

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18405786

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18403012

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18400805

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18400366

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18400165 all 10 in a hour!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18399387

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18399100

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18398959

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18398805

http://bazaar.tf/trade/715449

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=10052010

this is actually really needed, he isnt really proving that 7 ref is out of the equation yet, just kinda reconfirming 7.11-7.22 as a fairly common trading point

you just made this suggestion get my upvote

Hate to say this but its true D:

Come on you know better than this :P

More 7 ref quicksales

(Does #savethekeys still exist or did they die off ages ago, I miss the rage comments.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18411947

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18411941

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18410498

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18409448

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18409191

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18409045

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=10052294 all 8 gone

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18408583

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18408262

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18407763

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18407675

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18407648

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18406734

Key prices aren't going to go down until people stop buying them for higher prices. Clearly, this isn't going to happen for quite some time, so an upvote appears to be in order.

I still see many bots buying at 7.11 and selling at 7.33 or 7.44

Hafta upvote this suggestion

Not sure if this will help much, but here's one of my trades buying a key for 7.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18290792

Successfully bought one within a minute.

Well, we all know he has enough proof and he keeps finding more. Don't go against him.

IMMHO there are like 100 7.11 ref buyers good proof.

First, I'd like to thank the community for (mostly) keeping this key suggestion clean. This is as civil as I have seen a key suggestion in a long time. We welcome your input about the state of the economy in the forums. I am glad people have heeded this, as it has made evaluating the proof here a lot easier for both the mods and the rest of the community.

As for the suggestion itself, this is as close as I've ever seen a key suggestion get to it's maximum possible upvotes (+1000). Community vote is strongly behind this one probably because the proof is so strong. It is quite clear that there are at least as many trades happening >7.11 as are happening at 7 ref. So why not 7-7.22 ref? Well, making a range would be arbitrary since we don't follow a rigorous statistical method to establish our ranges. Suffice it to say that people will always sell for above and below bp.tf values and 7.11 ref seems to indeed be the most common trading point right now.

As always, please note that the key cooldown rules are still in place: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2620-key-cooldown-guidelines-read-before-making-key-suggestions/