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newun.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18255297 (yesterday)
Sold for Smoking KE = 4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17922667 KE sold for 4 pure
http://backpack.tf/id/76561197993231904?time=1392278400
http://backpack.tf/id/76561197993231904?time=1392364800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18344437 (couple days ago)
Sold for C9 Shako + Aces Noble = 5 buds
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198057698765?time=1393747200
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198057698765?time=1393833600
http://backpack.tf/item/2179151261 adolf to Johnny (month ago)
Sold for 2 BMOCS + 47 keys in festives = ~3.4 buds outlier because it's so odd. I think the guy really wanted all those festives, plus it was right after xmas so the values were higher.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17154286 (1 month ago)
Sold for steaming KE (old price) 3 something, probable outlier.
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198085697697?time=1389427200
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198085697697?time=1389513600
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17068669 (1 month ago)
Sold for PF nappers(1.4) + FL gym rat(1.2) + killa slope scoper(2.7) = 5.3 buds
I'm going to use 4-5 as the range because oddly this hat keeps selling for a large range. Balancing the low-lows and the high-highs, this range seems to be the most representative.
14th
#30in30
At this rate I'm going to have 30 in like 2 weeks :L
Stupid "update a hat to update a hat to update a hat"
Just for reference, there are offers more than a month old that seem to be higher than 5 buds here, but as with all new effects, the value is changing more rapidly than that. There is only the phosphorus ck offer that might be >5 (has an old price), but considering all other offers are closer to ~4 and that there is the sale at 3.4 to balance that out, the range seems about right here.