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Needs a drop.
[proof below]
Sellers/solds at 3.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18415017
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18360849
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18416194
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18414052 - 3.66/2/1.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18382537 - 3.77
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18413891 - 3.33
Classifieds.
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52d2149d4cd7b878328b456a
5x below 4
I think that this may be enough to show the hat is being sold for less, but can you show that these aren't quicksells? Like how long does each trade take?
Because there is 1 guy (dabaers) selling for 3.66 without success for 3 days. There are also many unsolds below 4 in the classifieds.
This is just a conversative bump.
4th link of yours has no stated price, seems like most of these links are pretty young, however, looking at the classified, people are selling for even less than 3.66, you still got an upvote from me