PREFACE: This is a conservative price estimate based off two sales that could be considered outliers. I'm only putting this up as a starter price.

This hat continues to be 1 of 1, and has sold several times for high-tier hats.

Sale 1:

http://backpack.tf/id/76561197978769189?time=1393833600 - Before

http://backpack.tf/id/76561197978769189?time=1394092800 - After

Last night, I bought this hat from Metalogic for a Beams Modest, a Blizzard Toque, and a bud in mixed (18 keys + graybanns + strange minigun). This sale COULD be considered an outlier, however, as Metalogic bought the hat under rather odd circumstances. The reason I'm using this sale is because all of the hats involved are clean and have recent prices.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18353465

Metalogic (previous owner) quickbought that Burning Modest for 17 in a matter of a few hours . A few days later, he sold it to http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/19535 for the HKC and 3 buds. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18376017 shows the item history for that trade. It's clear from the buyer's trade history that he was desperate for a modest of any kind, hence why both of these sales could easily be considered outliers. Anyway, the total for these is:

Modest (15.5) + Toque (2) + 1 Bud. Metalogic ultimately offered his hat to me, so there was no overpay on my part.

Now let's look at the second sale:

Burning Modest (19.5 buds) was offered the HKC + 3 buds. Subtracting the three pure from the Modest's value gives us 16.5 buds. Now, what happens if you assume the HKC is worth what I bought it for (18.5), and calculate overpay? You get 16.5 buds, the exact remaining value of the burning modest. Again, I'm using this odd sale because all the hats involved were clean and have recent prices.

Even though these sales are outliers, I'd like to get a price up for this hat even if it's a little lower than what it might actually be worth (based on the sales below that I can't even price).

Other sales include:

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198061771595?time=1390636800 - Before

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198061771595?time=1390809600 - After

Sold for a Duped Ghosts Team Captain, Logo Tricorne, Strange Kritz, and 4 keys. Normally I would use this sale as my high-end, except the TC is nearly impossible to price. The last few sales were all for unpriced hats, and (apart from this one) were months ago.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17469174

Sold for a "signed" gifted Burning Tyrant's + Scorching Pot. However, if my sales are outliers, this one is the mother of all outliers because Hossam sharked the HKC off the initial owner for a vivid Party Phantom.

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198017728796?time=1390464000

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198017728796?time=1390377600