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Time has not been kind to robo-effects, and this hat is clearly no exception. Without further ado, here are the sales:
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198002150550?time=1393920000 - Before
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198002150550?time=1394006400
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198002150550?time=1394092800 - After
On March 4th, Ellerus trades his Anti-Freeze CM and one bud for a Beams Tyrants (9.5 buds) and an unpriced Miami Nights Noble Amassment. Normally, I would never use this as part of a suggestion.. except for the fact that the very next day, he traded the Noble 1:1 for a Scorching Glove (3.3 buds, 4 month old price).
We can therefore put a value on the trade.
Tyrant's (9.5 * 0.9 = 8.55) + Glove (3.3 * 0.9 = 2.97) = 11.52 buds. Taking away the bud he added, we get 10.52 buds.
Now, you might call that an outlier, given that the same trader traded a knifestorm modest pre-drop for a burning flames cowl and the bud he later added to the CM. Except, you'd be wrong, because I have a second sale.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17791803
Yesterday, Turdoe trades his AF CM and a Max Head for a Green Energy Villain's Veil (priced at 13) that was offered to him privately. If we take the figure from the previous sale (10.5) and add the 2.5 buds that a Max is currently worth, what do we get? 13. Two sales at the same price can't be an outlier.
you forgot something on the second sale
you wrote it in a nice way, but it made you forget overpay on the veil.
13 buds * .9 = 11.7
max is 2.7-2.8 currently, which would make it a sale at ~9
range might as well be neccesarry
edit: nevermind http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18336058
he offered on the veil, no overpay should be taken, would maek it a sale at ~10.3, which can be nicely rounded to 10.5
just took a look, your first sale is incorrect
the miami modest http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2415053352,137,5 did not come from the same user as the beams tyrants (yu-gi-oh)
instead, it appears he got a flies officer's ushanka (ushanka has never had a price suggestion)
it seems he sold the flies ushanka with a uncraft professional killstreak liberty launcher for the miami noble
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18397447 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18399316
That explains a lot. I couldn't trace the ushanka in his item history, all I knew is that it was on his Outpost profile and then mysteriously vanished. However, the fact remains that he ultimately traded the Ushanka and LL for the Noble, and the Noble 1:1 for the Scorching Glove. There's no evidence that anything was added to the Ushanka/LL for the Noble, nor is there any evidence that anything was added to the Noble for the Glove. This means that it is effectively the same thing as trading for the Scorching Glove to begin with. I based my price off the Glove, and not the unpriced Noble or the Ushanka I didn't even know was part of the sale.
the liberty launcher did not come from the same user of the beams tyrants/ushanka though, it was added by himself, there is no way to deduct that from the scorching gloves value, as it is unknown how much it would go for.
the only way to make the first sale valid is with pricing the flies officers ushanka
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18073717 - burning lucky + 1 ~11.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17691696 - duped burning honchos ~10-11
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16880171 - darkblaze warpig; also offered ~12-13 (mostly pure). And the warpig itself has offers >11 including an AF tyrants + sweets
This will need more digging into. There is at least one recent sale higher than your range and one mostly pure offer significantly higher.