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Misty Skull Lucky Shot (1 of 1)
Original Price: 6.7-7.8 (3 months old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18097508 - Sunbeams Troublemaker's Tossle Cap [8.1] after overpay.
I bought it for 4.25 pure as a quicksale. Those are the only two times this hat has changed hands since the last suggestion.
Bought for 4.25 Buds - as a "quicksale"
1 Sale at 8.1 Buds
It's 1:1
Would it be better to wait for another sale?
The last suggestion had 4 sales - thus giving it a much more accurate range.
A suggestion based on just 1 sale seems like an outlier - looking at the price
On rare and expensive unusuals, bp.tf is more of a record of the most recent sale(s) than it is a pricing guideline. Rare and extremely expensive hats are worth whatever people will pay for them. If somebody pays 300 buds for a Burning KE, then that's what it's worth.
If it sells again in the next 3 months, then that sale can be incorporated into a range. Until then, listing what the current owner bought it for is appropriate when it's the only valid sale.
If you're worried about it being an outlier, the most recent sale not included was for a Misty Skull Swagman's Swatter, which is above 8.1. 8.1 is barely above the old range, which can be attributed to the recent change that made Lucky Shots and Soldier's Stashes able to be equipped at the same time.
The hype is strong with this one.