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Proof below. 6 month-old price.
Clean only
Sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18041293
-bought beams tree: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18061726
-5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17891202
-b/o of 5.5 buds
-sold for scorching topi+miami bolted birdcage (unpriced)+sf huntsman
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16971391
-wanted 5 buds
-sold for o.f. bomber+dp attendant=over b/o of 5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18227650
-wanted 5.5 buds
-ke+1 bud bought misty honcho (very outdated): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18442297
-~4.2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18232910
-wanted 5 buds
-bought beams pe: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17957049
-~4.2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17499418
-wanted 5 buds
-seems to have sold for c9 marauder+steaming ushanka (outdated): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17512139
-~4.9 buds then
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17473025
-sold for kaw pot (outdated)+bubbling exec=~5.7 buds, clear outlier and pot is likely lower
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17568086
-b/o of 5 buds
-sold for 5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17548710
-wanted ~4.2 buds
-bought hearts drill: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17523980
-4.2 buds due to b/o
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17380034
-wanted 5 buds
-bought max+sf rl: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17265134
-4.4 buds then
Sales: 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.4, 4.9, 5, 5, 5, 5.7
Sales mostly range from 4.2-5 so that the price. 4.2 is kinda low but seems that people are willing to accept that. 5 is very possible though.