Suggestion: Miami Nights Crone's Dome at 386.1–419.25 keys

Price Suggestion

~95.5 keys

miami

113 votes up

16 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Mon, 24 Mar 14 14:53:39 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

Miami Nights Crone's Dome

Messed up last sugg

Original Price: None

New Price: 19.8-21.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18167264 - sold for Spellbound Kabuto, B/O was 15 (~15) [outlier]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15737701 - sold for Spellbound Kabuto (~19.8)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17483553 - sold for Terror TC + Orb. Fire Beak + 6 keys mixed (~21.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15926522.

Was offered a Sulphurous TC + 5 buds in Paypal by Day_Man (~38 total) and declined.

Was also offered a GE Veil (~13) + an AF Cold Killer (~9) + a Terror-Watt Swagman's (~4) by ☣Crooks☣. On Vacation (~26 total) and declined.

Was offered an Arcana Muffs (~22.6) by RiffRaff and declined.

In all of these cases a Miami Night's Crone's was offered less than the high end of this price. I believe that the high end of this price needs a serious bump.

first you'd need to factor overpay on all those offers.

sulph tc offer is 3 months old

veil offer hid their own post, so it can be considered retracted, but its also 2 months old

muffs is 2 months old as well

old offers aren't really strong proof

gibus has a suggestion for 15.5-16.5 and that would be 14.4 after overpay. it does appear to be somewhere around that range. elfin is 3 after overpay. but both are outdated

and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18704597 is taking 20. highend might actually be too high. combine that with the guy willing to take 19, and this range might be too high in general

First off, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18704597 is not "taking" 20, he is quickselling for 20. Both People on Outpost selling for 20 are QUICKSALES. Both people are only selling for pure. Nowhere on outpost are people selling for less than 20. What matters (in my opinion), is what people are selling for at the time being. Right now nobody is selling at a normal price for under 20.

Also, all of these cheap sales are a month old. My proof is almost as old as his proof

Many other sales exist and should be used, however, this range sufficiently concentrates where the sales are happening. 20 sounds about right to me, but I am very unsure about this suggestion. I will reserve and manipulate my right not to vote.

Manipulate? Also I'm pretty sure there's like 1 more recent invalid sale, but that's about it

There have been plenty more in the past 3 months. Also it's just a fancy way of saying neutral

Usually dont take sales older than a little over a month for 3rd gens as they can drop in a month

Can you explain to me why you consider one Spellbound Kabuto as 15 and then the other as 19.8?

The guy's buyout was 15, but it seems to be an outlier/his buyout being a quicksale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18637841 willing to do 19.

also terror tc was recently updated

I just bought one for a Miami Nights Gibus (27.4) + a DBD Big Elfin Deal (3.8) + a bud in sweets. For a total of 32.2 buds

The value on the gibus is way too old to use, unfortunately. In the absence of a formal suggestion, the best estimate we can get is no more than ~15 based on the unmet b/o of 15 for 2 weeks. That sale is probably no more than ~20 after overpay which also fits right into the suggested range.