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Counter suggestion to A god damn pony [ÃÂïÃÂ]. Most proof comes from him, i've just changed the range due to quicksales (note he had 4 days to re-suggest)
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18467885 - 3 buds (quickselling in notes)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18509000 - 4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18217232 - 4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17377539 - 4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18538208 ~ 4.28 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18445222 - 5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18368052 - 6 buds
(note some may be duped, none are below 4 buds except the quickseller.)
Sold:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18435170 ~ sold for 2.2 buds (quicksold claims to be drunk)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18476934 ~ 50 keys - 2.6 buds (quicksold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17404247 ~ 3.5 buds (quicksold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17616801 ~ 4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17453638 ~ 4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17571126 ~ 4 buds (in bp)
I didn't include unsolds, but since there are no sales going on above 4 buds (which seems to be the norm) and both high priced trades are young (<1week) this price bump seems reasonable to me.
Feel free to post more proof, counter proof or general comments :)
Edits: fixing links deleting dupes
I guess i should have noted, of all the outpost sellers, one was open to offers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18417807
But this and all the above seller links are what was listed on outpost when i made this suggestion.
Quickseller for 3 buds closed trade but didn't sell, he has opened a new trade here:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18567605
He wants a max's head + 5 keys
The quickseller also listed on classifieds for 50 keys.
A trade isn't a quicksell just because a seller has labeled it so. Hard to ignore the sellers at 3 here. This seems too high.
The sold one was closed near the same time it was created, and this quickseller is saying 3 buds but its been 5 days, whether they aren't bumping much or these recent suggestions have scared people off i don't know. Generally speaking unusuals take a while to sell and the scale of quicksell/normal sale is hard to determine. I think until it sells/ they drop the price/ raise the price we won't know for the current quickseller.
Edit 1:
The quickseller at 3.5 buds (who sold) did so in 2 days, that's pretty quick in my opinion. The lower ones were sold the same day or the day after posting.
decent conservative bump down, way more accurate than the current price. accepting this