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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18059888 Sold for 16 keys + a Strange Disciplinary + a Rather festive tree ~18
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18364020 B/O of 17 sold for a white bill's + 9 keys ~16 (This is counting paint of course. I've seen some sell for 6 + 5 ref, rounding to 16)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17415566 Sold for 19 keys http://imgur.com/F5Ig0t5
Do you have any proof your first link actually sold for what you say it did? Did you check out inventory history, or do you have a screenshot of trade history?
Look at the history of the items.