Suggestion: Roboactive Modest Pile of Hat at 390–468 keys

Price Suggestion

~300 keys

robo

56 votes up

61 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 23 Mar 14 02:43:44 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

The last pricedrop absolutely did no justice to this hat, now it's time to set a more appropriate price for it.

Here are the last 3 sales to my knowledge in which a Roboactive Modest was traded and where priced unusuals were traded.

Paid for: Price that was paid

Effective: Price after subtracting overpay

Sale 1

I've bought my Roboactive Modest for a Dead Presidents Team Captain + a white Bill's hat. Mainly because I love the Modest and because I don't expect to benefit from every trade I make.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024464350?time=1392624000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024464350?time=1392796800

Original bp.tf price at the time of trading was ~43 buds. I'm honest, so the real value should've been somewhere around 20-22 buds (the price it has today).

Paid for: Dead Presidents Team Captain + White Bill's hat.

Effective: = ~21 buds

Sale 2

Sold for: Harvest Moon Phantom + Smoking Brainiac + TW Powdered Practitioner

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032827624?time=1392364800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032827624?time=1392710400

Paid for: ~18.2 + ~2 + ~2.5

Effective: 16.4 + 1.8 + 2.25 = 20-20,5 buds

Most recent sale:

Few days ago, another Roboactive Modest was sold for 24 buds PURE

The rade:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17912002

His backpack after the trade:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073114998?time=1394780400

The hat in the buyer's backpack:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057857880

The seller's trade where he's selling the buds:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18465249

Paid for: 24 buds pure

Effective: 24 buds pure

Not useful sale

Modest + Burning Larkin + ~16 keys in items for C9 TC

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198049072796?time=1392105600

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198049072796?time=1392192000

Paid: Modest + Burning Larkin + 17 keys in items

Effective: ~25 (price for the TC) - ~5 for the Larkin/Sweets and overpay = ~19.5

The value of the TC is not fully clear. There are B/O's of 22-30+, there is someone quickselling for 21 buds pure and it's currently priced at 25-30 on backpack.tf, with no price change pending. So it's not very helpfull to use a sale like this.

Outliers

There are a few outliers, which don't reflect most other sales involving this hat.

These can't really be used to price this hat, since they are way below the most current sales and therefor there is no use in listing them in this price suggestion.

Besides that, they are all older than the listed sales in this price suggestion, so the current sales take precedence over older ones anyway.

Conclusion:

All the below mentioned sales are the most recent ones, and should therefore be perfect to determine a proper price range:

Sale 1: ~21 buds

Sale 2: ~20-20.5 buds

Sale 3: 24 buds

Suggested Price Range: 20 - 24 buds

"Afterword"

I've considered many prices for this hat as it seemed very hard to determine the right price for this.

This price though, should be the most accurate for now. I've re-evaluated the price of the Team Captain and excluded all outliers on the low end, because they do not reflect the most current sales.

The high-end might seem high for some people, but the last recorded RA Modest sale did sell for 24 buds pure.

So, this price range covers the current lower-end sale(s) and the most current high-end sale.

As always, happy to hear feedback people

prices are meant to be in pure, which is why we take overpay

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18620917 b/o 22 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18090468 b/o 24 pure

highend seems a little high, but i do agree this needs a bit of a bump up

[EFR] TheKaushuMan™ #5warmers · modified about 12 hours ago · Score: 0

pls no 7th resuggest

i think i saw a buyout for 22

It changed my price to 22 this afternoon (to keep in line with the other owner), a few hours after he posted that message. So that 24 he mentioned was correct then.

that means you shouldn't have a high end of 24

Correct, so I heard. I'm afraid that means I need to do another suggestion...

Better than before, yet still quite bad

First of all your price is basically saying the 2 other sales (from last suggestion) are complete outliers

Whether they are outliers or your sales are doesn't matter, your high end is too high

If you look at the sales used in this and the last suggestion, the sales are:

15, 16.5, 20, 24, 25 (I assume that neither of you made any mistake calculating)

If you examine market these days, you will find 2 B/O's at 22, which means no matter what happens the high end cannot be above 22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18620917

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18090468 (yours)

Normally 24 would be acceptable as high end but with 3 sales below that and 2 B/O's below that, it's just too high

I seriously consider waiting for another sale to determine if a new range is really more accurate, hard to judge which sales are the outliers

I think most people agree that 15 and 16.5 (prolly more ~17) are the outliers here. Those 2 sales are the lowest by far. If you look back even further in history, you see that those sales are close to my current suggestion than that they are to those 15 and 17 sales.

Besides that, the cheat sheet tells me: "Keep in mind, new sales should take precedence over older ones". The last 3 sales are easily above the current suggested value. I'm not really convinced that yet another sale brings any considerable difference in this though.

Anyhow, I do agree that high-end might be around 22, if you would take an "average" of most sales. Funny thing is, I did that in my first suggestion any people started complainig why I didn't use 24 as high-end...

And uhm, my price was 24 buds pure basically the whole time, I changed it (few hours ago) to 22 to keep it in line with the other owner's price.

Your reasoning is very logical. I like logic, why pay 24 when everybody asks to get paid 22 buds.

Edit:

I'm fine if the high-end goes to 22. Looks like people want that, well they can have it.

It is just you have to give the guy some credit Fixer. He has a point.

If you have 2 sellers that wants 22 buds for it, then why would anybody pay 24 buds?

Yeah, you're right. Actually only 1 guy had a 22 pure B/O and I decided to try that out myself (to see if that would speed up some nice pure offers). 2 sellers, including me, had a price of 24 and the other seller sold his Modest for that a few days ago.

On my very first price suggestion, I actually suggested to use a range of 20-22 but several people responded and/or pm'd me that I should use 24 as high-end because of the last sale.

This is my first time trying to make a price suggestion, so I'm still trying to learn here :)

Anyway, after talking to some more experienced "price suggestors", I came to the conclusion that 24 might indeed be too high for now. Something around 20-21 or 20-22 might be a better range afterall....

And I was not critising you as a person. I know it takes time doing the research for a suggestion.

You are obviously getting better with the suggestions so keep it up. :)

Can't vote on this '-' D:, I NEED MAH POINTS

There are two selling for 22. What's up with that 24?

As I said before, I changed that temporarily (this afternoon) to keep it in line with the other owner's price. If it's that much of a problem though, I'm happy to changed it back to 24 (as it always has been for the last couple of weeks).

I will stay neutral for now, like stated above I would wait for another sale to lesson the broad range of the sales thus far. Needs a bump though, not sure how much really.

Downvote.

2 buyouts of 22 buds, 24 should not be in the range. 24 is an outlier.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18620917 - sold for burning pug + burning blokes + burning festivizer + burning dixie + burning capotain + max + 5 keys in stuff ~17

So sales at 15, 17, 17, ~18 (c9 modest + RA billy), ~19 (burning robin + 1 for c9 tc, generously taking the c9 tc at 25), 20, 21, 24.

I would take 15 and 24 as the outliers given the offers and b/os and put a range at 17-21.