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Sales -
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17927255 - 5 pure
Sellers -
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18411085 - 4.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18327462 - 4.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18477604 - 4.6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18346885 - 3.5 pure offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18513154 + http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18499006 for ~ http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18529030
A Secret Mirror(~4-4.5~3.8)+Prof Killstreake Grenad (~16-17 keys-steam market ~0.8)~4.6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18590813
Scorching Elfin(~3.8-4-old price) for~ PE TRee
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17976505
PE Tree for~PE Scotch Bonnet(~2.3-2.7~2.3 -old but possible)+PE Sola Topi(~2-2.5 http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/198483117 )~4.5
I sold my Electrostatic Robo Tower for one. (4.7)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18132868 - added 20 keys for a disco dapper. offered, so no overpay. that sale comes out to ~3.7.
You also have that elfin sale, so I'm not sure the 3.7 is an outlier. And then there are all those b/os at 4.5
Not really seeing enough here.
there are only 3 non-duped ones on tf2op and they are all 4.7+.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18477604 - sold for max + buds + 5 keys (~4 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18529030 - sold for secret mirror (original price was 3.9-4.4) and pro grenade ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18539232 - currently unsold at 15 keys), making that sale ~4.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18115927 - this hat offered on and sold for ghosts noble (4-4.1, 4 month old price)
Except for that one 5 bud sale, the other sales seem to be in the 4-4.5 range. Your suggested price is a bit too high. Please resuggest a slightly lower range.