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See This.
Sells:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17283853 - 2.5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18662495 - 2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18655918 - 2.5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18556874 - Offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18629823 - 2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17610320 - Offers/BP.tf2 price
Sold Seels:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17958365
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17665082
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18167767 - sold for 2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17226143
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16276998
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17910001
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17930629
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18000032 - sold for Smoking Voodoo Juju + 4 keys maybe
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18133411
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17514892 - sold for Bubbling Lucky Shot + 20 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18001157 - sold for Cloud 9 virtual reality helm painted white and 5 keys
The only sale you give that I could actually confirm was the Bubbling Lucky shot + 20 keys sale which would be 35 keys or ~1.75 buds which is below your low end, the others went to different people and I see no proof for the 2 bud sale.
Lack of verifiable proof and bad range = downvote
Because I know this is going to be coming as well, B/Os mean nothing unless you're lowering the price. You need at least two valid sales to set an initial price on a 2013 effect hat.
Well, you understand that the key is 3-4 and not such a big difference.
it actually is a big difference when 5 keys is a quarter of a bud and you can't even prove that it's worth at least 2 buds.
I remember when i bought one off these off the unboxer for a cheap 44 keys at the time when they were new, then 1:1'd it for a scorching one. Ha! Anyway, upvote
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18781205 - BO 2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18262532 - BO 2 buds, unknown sale price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18639864 - this hat offered on g.energy hetmans (2 year old price)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17283853 - BO 2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18000032 - actually sold for eerie bonnet (very old price) + maybe some keys
Currently two buyouts at 2 buds, and I didn't see any justification for the 2.5 bud high end. Your suggested price is too high.