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Just bought this neat misc, might as well update the price since I'm going to own this for a while.
Outpost Trade of the previous owner: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18692122
Sold for 13 pure + a Bubbling HazMat Headcase + a P. Fetti Mountain Cap.
13 + ((7.5+1)*0.9) = 20.65
http://imgur.com/lDbOEfN
http://imgur.com/olt6p01
http://imgur.com/UITyAjH
His B/O was 20 buds pure, so I set that as the new price suggestion.
Here were some other offers just for shits and giggles
(these prices may be outdated but they're not considered as part of my suggested price, they're merely here to prove that I didn't just overpay a whole crap-ton and way over market price. I think my suggestion is pretty solid without this but whatever):
10 buds pure + PE Beak
(10 + 8.5*0.9) = 17.65
Cloudy Moon Tosslecap + PE Swagman's
(14.4 + 6.4)*0.9 = 18.72
Secret Brigade
(19.4*0.9) = 17.46
Burning Attendant + Orb. Fire Bonk Boy + DBD Bandana + 1 bud
(15.1 + 3 + [UNVALUED])*0.9 + 1 = 17.29 without bandana
Stormy 13th Merry + Orb. Fire Hazmat + 2 pure
(7.2+13)*0.9 + 2 = 20.18
It's 1/3, with one being in a collector's bp and the other owner rejecting all private adds. I think that this unusual is rare enough to warrant creating a suggestion on one sale. The previous suggestion was also based on one sale.
What about the last sale, though? I think it could still be incorporated into a range of 17-20. But then there are still those higher offers, so I might upvote for now ^^
These unusuals usually sell for higher and higher because they're wanted, rare and the sellers know how much they can get
He showed few offers above 17 (he said himself some might be outdated, at least 1 has to be valid) so it kinda shows 17 became an outlier
Even though the last sale is pretty recent, in these hats the most recent sale is usually the best indicator of price and considering offers above last sale, I'd say the last sale is an outlier
Aye, which is why I'm upvoting ^^ Them offers :3
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-new-unusual-price-suggestion-guide-the-cheat-sheet/
"Unpriced hats – hats that have never had a proper suggestion or have no price
Two sales are required to establish a range on all new hats / hats with new effects. "
2 sales rule only applies to unpriced, new-effect unusuals. But, if there are more valid sales out there, they should be used.
Also, opinion doesnt matter. Hazmat is one of those collector unusuuals. so yeah.
You don't need two sales for non 2013 unusuals I do believe.
It's also not price manipulation if he can prove that the hat is worth as much as he says.
The peace sign Noh is above 30 buds because of its rarity for example.
Edit: Sniped*2