This thing is well and truly in need of a drop.

4 in existence, 3 on outpost

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18787534 - 3 bud buyout, 1 month (first posting http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18025228 )

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17547419 - 2.5 bud buyout, 2 months

(this trader has also posted in classifieds for 2.5 buds http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52e57a354cd7b8d2438b4568 )

This third hat has changed hands twice in the last week or so, but beforehand had been unsold for over a month

First sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18181551 - Sold with a Miami Nights Familiar Fez (2 buds) for 2 buds pure + Strange festive holy mackeral with strange part ( ~5 keys) + 12 keys pure + ~1.5 keys worth of sweets in items + Machina Prof Killstreak Fabricator ~ 3 keys = ~3.1 buds. if you deduct the 2 buds price of the Fez, it means the cloud crasher's equated value in this trade is around 1.1 buds.

Proof:

Buyer Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036595770?time=1395730800

Buyer After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036595770?time=1395903600

Seller Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047182211?time=1395730800

Seller After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047182211?time=1395903600

This trade seems a clear outlier due to the equated 1.1 bud price of the cloud crasher.

Second Sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18825087 - Had 2.5 bud buyout, sold for a Specialized killstreak Australium medigun (normally 2 buds but with specialized killstreak ~2.1 buds, see notes) = ~2.1 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18694670 - Can see the offer from Cloud crasher owner offering on Medi gun, therefore no overpay calculated for this trade.

Proof:

Buyer Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079033316?time=1395903600

Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079033316?time=1395990000

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036595770?time=1395990000

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036595770?time=1396076400

*Notes: I know the community market isnt the best evidence but this is just to get a rough value range. http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Specialized%20Killstreak%20Medi%20Gun%20Kit - Sells usually around the 5-6 dollar range = 2-3 keys = ~0.1 buds

Summary:

3 on outpost at the moment

1 has a buyout for 3 buds that has been unsold for over a month

1 has a buyout of 2.5 buds that has been unsold for over 2 months

There was 1 sale where the equated value of the Cloud crasher was ~ 1.1 buds <- outlier

There was another sale for an Spec. Killstreak Aus Medigun = ~2.1 buds

Conclusion:

There is really low demand for this hat, even at 2.5 buds buyout it has been unsold for 2 months.

The only sale that has gone down in the last month has been for ~2.1 buds

Therefore set the price to 2.1 buds

Comments, Suggestions and Feedback are always welcome :)