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The current price on this hat is unrealistic as the result of two things - one, the hype generated by the recent unboxing of a burning KE and the subsequent sales of a clean scorching one and several others, and two, a cartel action made to generate profit off the hype. Hats don't jump 8 buds overnight, and it's clear that 20 is an unrealistic price based on how the market values it. Let's take a look at some sales.
Sale 1:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978769189?time=1394866800 - Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978769189?time=1395212400 - After
Two weeks ago, Psycho (http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/207759) traded me a clean Peace KE for a 1 of 1 Vivid Plasma Hong Cong Kone, which I priced at 17.5 myself (you can go check). Now, if we assume the KE was worth 20 buds at that time (it wasn't, but the price was already up), let's calculate overpay.
20 * 0.9 = 18
Logically, there's no reason Psycho should have double-overpaid on it. Unlike one of the other offers I had (1 of 1 vivid gibus from a collector), Psycho isn't a collector. Now, let's assume it's worth 19.5 instead.
19.5 * 0.9 = 17.55, which PERFECTLY FITS the price of the Cone. The only logical explanation for this is that the hat was never worth 20, and Psycho knew this, hence why he traded it.
Sale 2:
Once I had the hat, I went after two hats in particular - a clean burning modest, or a clean moon modest. While I deleted my trade's notes at the request of the person I sold it to, you can see some of the offers here:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18656481
The problem is that not ONE of the offers I got in a two-week period reached a level that would be considered proper overpay for a 20-bud hat. I ultimately wound up selling it for a duped Burning Modest and 2 buds. To get an idea of what the duped burning one is worth..
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16559066 - One offer of 17 pure in the last week, bunch of other offers around 17.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18962632 - Buyout of 18
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18656481 - The trade in which I sold the KE
Using this, we can make a (probably correct) assumption that the duped Burning Modest is worth roughly 17.5 buds. However, there's something I haven't done yet - calculate overpay. The Modest was, after all, offered on my KE.
17.5 buds * 0.9 = 15.75 + 2 = 17.75, or just over what the HKC I had was worth. It's worth noting that I didn't have a single moon modest owner even consider the KE when I had it and offered it on their trades, further proving that this hat simply is not worth 20 buds.
Final Comment: I think this is the first of what will likely be several price decreases that will happen over time. The amount this hat inflated, and the short period of time in which it did so, indicates that a crash once the hype disappears is likely.
Why are you using 19.5 for the peace ke on the vivid cone? Shouldn't you use 20?
And you can't just assume the price of the duped burning modest.
Oh and a moon modest has a price of 30.9 buds (outdated) on the site, and with overpay applied on the peace ke (since you offered them) you would be offering <60% of the last price of the moon modest. No surprise they rejected you huh?
First, moon modest is now at 18 and has been for well over a month. I would know. Second, I explain in the OP how and why the KE is not worth 20 in the cone sale, because the numbers don't add up. What you're doing is attempting to deny sales.
No I am not, you're making up numbers to justify something, and I'm asking why you do this. And I'm stupid and thinking that moon = harvest moon (whih, in my defense IS 30.9). Cloudy indeed is 17-19, sorry about that. And still, somebody rejecting a hat, even one that theoretically holds more value, is no proof of a decrease in price. The owners of the moon modests could just not be interested in owning a peace ke
I'm not making up numbers. What I point out is that if the KE is really 20 buds, the math simply does not work. The numbers I've provided for pricing make the math on the proven sales work. Therefore, the only logical conclusion is that the KE is not worth, and in fact was never worth 20.
First, I'd say the modest owners weren't interested because many ppl like one or the other like Chevy and Ford and that's a massive effect downgrade from moon to peace. They probably just weren't interested regardless of value.
Second, I agree with all the other logic presented and the valuation of the duped burning modest. Up from me.
As the owner of the other Peace KE, I'd be willing to contribute some information to this.
I bought the Peace KE for Secret Jefe 1:1. Backpack has an old price on it for 30.6. King Irish sold the Jefe for the unusuals included here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18532449 (Check the histories if you don't believe it). Using backpack prices, it's priced at 25.8, but most of the hats are outdated in their pricing. I have no idea who offered on who so I don't know where to apply the overpay.
It was also sold in a deal with WHAT LOOKS LIKE Searing Norman(?) + Secret Jefe + Moon Billy (4.3) = Secret Phantom (15.6) + Moon Kabuto (18.2). I'm not 100% sure of the pricing of the Norman.
Some offers I've had on my hat: http://imgur.com/eby6gA4 . That's a Moon Baker, Moon Dapper, Smoking Connosieurs, Scorching Snaggle, and Misty Skull private eye. I'm too lazy to take individual screens of each hat, but I will if necessary. Using backpack prices (Though again, a lot are outdated), and applying overpay, you get 27ish.
Another offer: http://imgur.com/0zJCyMR He's agreed that I don't have to add. If you don't believe me, I'll take a screenshot of the chat if necessary. Scorching Ballcap's price is old, but it's been 1:1'd for a Sunbeams Anger: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13245668 which backpack lists as 16.6. No idea who offered. Adding the prices of a burning billycock (Old price) and stormy bonk boy you'll get around 24
I was also offered 618 (18.727272 buds using tf2finance pricing) dollars, Scorching Stahl and willing to add (Bp.tf value is 22.6), and other stuff on my trades.
So above I've listed some offers that I've tried to do full price researching in. There are more but half of backpack's pricings are old and stuff. Now as I've mentioned earlier, I've tried providing evidence but a whole bunch of hats are old-priced, so take that into consideration. After looking at sales and offers, I feel as though the owner shortsold the KE a bit, or maybe he just didn't get as good as an offer. Given how the last suggestion for this hat was less than a month ago, I don't think a new bump is necessary.
Oh yeah on the ballcap, appears it was 1:1'd for a Green Energy BB (Though someone tells me the guy with the BB added 1), putting it at ~18.
May I also remind you of the clean Ghost tc I offered about a month ago or less on Buckets peace KE before you got it stomped, at the time it was like 25 even I believe, I was willing to 1:1 until I got my dream crones right after that and had to retract. The KE is really being undervalued at this point imo
Okay, let me break those down.
First one's not useable as counter-proof. The Jefe has a year-old price, and I highly doubt it's remained at 30 buds. The second sale on the Jefe is also no good because the Norman is unpriced and the Jefe's price is itself unreliable. Even if the Jefe WAS a 30-bud hat, it would be considered an outlier even on the previous price.
Second link is an offer I also received. The owner of those hats is a marked quickswitch scammer. It doesn't take a genius to figure out why he'd be willing to pay so much.
Third offer is no good. The Bonk Boy is a dupeski, and the person offering doesn't actually HAVE the Billycock and never did, as far as I know. The Ballcap + Bonk are probably worth the same or a bit less than the duped Burning Modest and 2 I got.
The Scorching Stahl you were offered was also a dupeski. I checked in on that one myself.
So the only offer you have that is valid for pricing is the $618 one. That's accounted for in the range I've posted.
Gonna have to disagree, all offers are valid- I'm obviously not considering the one from the scammer, but he is appealing his mark. Nonetheless it still is an offer that is substantial in value. The other offerer can get the billycock at any time so that issue is resolved. I've also provided enough evidence to give a good pricing on the Jefe. And finally, regarding duped offers, I consider them the same as a regular price minus a bud or two. At the end, the pricing is still outside of your original range.
I don't like this suggestion not because I own a Peace KE myself, but because your basis on the burning modest is flawed. You actively sought out a burning modest, which shows me that you are willing to take a low sell. I was talking to Thunder while he was doing your deal and he honestly could've added a lot more, but you thankfully didn't tell him to.
I don't have anything to say to the Vivid Cone, but as for the modest, I believe your willingness to take a burning modest led you to take a lower offer, which shouldn't be the basis for a suggestion. Calling a price "unrealistic" despite previous sales higher than 20 is also not the basis. Normally this suggestion would be better but it's been less than one month since the last suggestion, and it doesn't need a bump based on your sales. And either way, I have proof as to the KE being higher.
Oh I was also offered a Hearts Samureye, Scorching Ten Gallon, Vivid Modest, and 1 bud, which I value at 24.
I won't be saying much else. My main point is that you shouldn't bump a price that's not even old with a lower sale given much higher offers.
No, you don't get it. As soon as I had traded the Cone for the KE, I had made profit - I don't disagree that the KE is worth more than the cone is, hence why even the low-end is above where the Cone is. I also was not actively seeking out a Burning Modest, in that I was planning on taking a loss just to get one. What I realized is that the KE was NEVER worth 20 buds. I'm sorry if you paid more than that for it, and I totally understand how this seems like a dick move, but what I'm doing is warning people that even though this hat is high-priced, it does not have the demand that other hats in the same price range (such as similarly-priced Modests, Bombers, BoAs, etc have) have, and a lot of people don't value it as highly as they would a Burning Modest. What I'm trying to do is stop people from victimizing others as the result of a cartel action that has driven this hat way higher than it ever should've gone. It's going to go down with or without this update, but I'd rather ensure that people like the guy who drove this to 20 buds can't continue making profit through price manipulation.
I can't vouch for him nor do I know his intent, but I'm pretty sure Pyroman, the other suggestor, isn't a malicious market manipulator- I think he was just trying to update the price on a hat based on a sale. I'm not sure what cartel action is occuring, we're talking about a virtual market, not some drug cartel organization. People can ask for what people want to on their hats. Hats do not sell for what backpack says they do, hats sell for what people want to pay for them.
I don't understand how you can arrive at the conclusion that this hat is high priced. Changing a price based on a hypothetical or a realization isn't how the backpack system works. Instead, change a price based on sales and offers, all of which I have provided. You're free to go through them and do deeper research to find the exact pricing on offers, which I'm too lazy for. But either way, I do not price hats based on "What they're supposed to be". If it's sold for 20+ and gotten offered that amount before, then I don't see why it can't get that again, which it already has.
Was just offered a (duped) burning modest + burning billy + stormy BB. Sorry mate, you sold for too low.
Was that from that guy who had the ballcap? He never actually had that billycock and the book boy is a dupeski
Like I said earlier, his friend has the billycock and he can get it at any time. Devalue the stormy BB all you want, even if you pretend it never existed in the offer, the billy + modest still beats the original offer. Same conclusion, some results.
A few things on this suggestion.
(1) Evaluation of the duped burning modest. Our method of calculating overpay is designed to provide a contrived way to determine what a hat can easily sell for pure. If the modest has offers of 17 pure, we have our answer without having to come up with an artificial calculation. I would say that the modest + 2 should be taken as no less than 19 here (in the absence of sales to define its value). We can safely cap it at 20 based on the other b/o at 18.
(2) Secret jefe evaluation - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53167bd24dd7b879328b456b - this is something I had looked at very closely at the time of this suggestion a short while back. While we don't have anything definitive to set a price for the jefe at this time, my evaluation on the suggestion was that it was approximately 21-24 after overpay.
(3) Scorching stahl evaluation: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/532564194cd7b8b7308b476b#532564194cd7b8b7308b476a_row - this is a suggestion for the duped scorching stahl
(4) Ghosts tc is 22, can't tell what hats are duped in the hearts sam, ten gallon, modest offer but the ten gallon has b/os at 7-8 and would need a formal evaluation to use that here (probably 20-21ish after overpay)
The stormy bonk being duped will have a minor effect on its value. Even if we took a buds off, it wouldn't matter in the grand scheme.
What I'm seeing here are sales at 17.5, 19, 20 (previous suggestion), 20-21 (jefe) with offers of 18.5 (pure), 20, 21, 22 (ghosts tc). One could argue for a range of 18-22 or 19-21 (removing a sale from the low end and offer from the high end). But honestly, the value set at 20 a month ago is probably close enough.