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5 Months Old Price
Unsolds
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18859681[/url] - 6 days
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18665678[/url] - 2 weeks
Solds
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18464564[/url] - Smoking lucky shot (1.5 buds)
[url]http://imgur.com/a/Otv7V#1[/url] - 1 bud and 2 keys
links are partically broken
Fixed thanks
You got some nice proof, i hope the price will change
Smoking Lucky Shot is 1.3-1.7, which would make the sale 1.5*.9~1.4 buds after overpay
Your third link bought it for a MN Data Mining Light; http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/595399 They then traded that for a planets gatsby.
This definitely needs a drop, but given the age of your sales (a month for the LS and 2 for the pure sale), I think you should make a suggestion for the MN data and see if it corroborates your range--looks like this might need to be even lower if the gatsby trade is any indication