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Strange Big Chief
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IT BEGINS... and continues. Also, I must admit: that cool-looking title has virtually no purpose other than to get you to read the notes.
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Selling for 1 key:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19053322
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19056386 (was originally selling for 1 key, 2 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19050888 (sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18984879 (sold)
http://www.trade.tf/trade/528771024 (sold?)
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Selling for >1 key:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19082619 (1 key, 3.33 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19041578 (1-2 keys)
http://www.trade.tf/trade/528862610 (1.5 keys, sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19071807 (2 keys)
http://www.trade.tf/trade/528790631 (2 keys, sold)
http://puu.sh/81zEX.png - 2 sellers for 2 keys on the classifieds at the time of posting
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SCM totals seem to have the majority of sales around 1.5 keys in the wallet money equivalent: http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Big%20Chief
I want to keep it semi-conservative, so I'll go with 1-1.5, even if there is proof for a 2 key sale.