Suggestion: Dead Presidents Law at 351–468 keys

Price Suggestion

~22 keys

49 votes up

18 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Mon, 21 Apr 14 15:21:17 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Resuggesting with altered range, 6 bud difference at this price doesn't seem bad enough to me to call the 24 sale an outlier considering a non-duped Bomber is ~24.

Offered on (and sold for) a Miami Nights Team Captain (~19.1),

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17935900

Sold for duped Secret to Everybody Brown Bomber (~24.3, last suggestion opened on January 4th so price is only just outdated and for the matter of duping I'll just put this at 20 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18300051 (History of Law)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18662633 (History of Bomber)

Offered on (and sold for) the following hats for a total of (~24):

-Harvest Moon Big Chief (~6.4)

-Purple Energy Trophy Belt (~4.2)

-Disco Beat Down Samur-Eye (~6.6)

-Sulphurous Flamboyant Flamenco (~9.1, 4 months outdated and a month old sale with a B/O of 7 suggest this hat is worth less than this so 7 it is)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18815304

Sold for a Dead Presidents Team Captain (~18 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17955225

Law > Lawyers saying "Yes, Yes!"

1. Miami TC is outdated, and not usable as proof. Many buyouts on outpost are lower than 19

2. Since the Bomber is duped, you must make a mini-suggestion for it, not an estimate.

3. Dead Presidents TC is definitely overpriced

10 buds (still not sold) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19083043

You can call it a quicksell if you want, but if it's not 10, it's definitely not 18

4. Just because a hat has a buyout of 7 buds does't mean it's actually 7 buds

- Miami TC was just updated 2 months ago how is that outdated?

- Forget I'm including the Bomber then, seems that dupes are more trouble than they're worth and it isn't essential for the suggestion

- That 10 bud sale is 3 days old, that strikes me as a feasible range for a quicksale on a hat that to my pauper eyes is rather expensive

- Can't find any recent sales for the Flamenco so a B/O is the best I could give as a mini-suggestion for the outdated price

My bad, it's not outdated. It's deficiently not what bp says it is though, with so many people asking less

I'll concede that the market is indeed suggesting a slight drop now but the sales for the TCs took place when the prices were fresher than they are now, the DP sale specifically took place between two drops that were a few days apart.

I took a look at the last Bomber suggestion and the price was set with dupes since it seems that's all that's really available so the 24 bud price evidently reflects the duped Secret Bomber market already http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52c8d7e24dd7b8420c8b4568

yes, the price of the secret bomber is based off dupes, as the clean one hasn't sold ever. but it still may be a good idea to prove that its around that value still, as it is slightly outdated.

So I did try and find a sale for the Bomber in that multiple dupe mess of a history and turned up a Disco Beat Down Viewfinder

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18448139

I do have two hopefully valid sales for the Viewfinder though they give a messy range of 24-35 so I don't feel comfortable giving it a full suggestion but for the purpose of a mini suggestion it gives a value of ~26.6 buds after overpay so applying overpay again to the bomber sale gets us ~23.9 or almost exactly what the current price for the bomber is giving us anyways. If this range is acceptable then I'll go ahead and make a full suggestion for the viewfinder.

Sold for 35 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18807465 (the trade, no relevant offers)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043826027?time=1396076400 (35 buds from the new Viewfinder owner)

Sold for a Disco Beat Down Brotherhood of Arms (~24)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18272524 (BoA trade)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18807465 (Viewfinder trade)

Here's my stance on the suggestion. These sales are actually really complex and I think your range probably captures the value. For example, the value of the miami tc was likely close to 19 at the time of that sale a month ago. Dead prez tc as well. So I think your general range here of 18-24 is probably about right for its value 2-4 weeks ago (when your sales happened). However, since then a new one was unboxed and is on the market for 21.

Personally, I think the best approach here is to wait 2 weeks to see what comes of trades like this: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19193487

I talked a bit about pricing hats off other hats that are moving targets here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/534dad294dd7b89b698b46d2

Having said all this, I think technically your range is correct based on the sales at the time and if another mod feels that is good enough I don't have an issue with accepting. But I suspect that a new one on the market has just dropped its value and that it would be better to wait for a few more sales. The counter argument for this approach is that new ones will continue to be unboxed, so where do we draw the line. Do we ask people to wait every time a new one comes on? I don't think that is reasonable either.

Well, this has been up for long enough. And we can't keep giving the excuse that it will drop so it shouldn't be priced since it will continue to drop. I will just caution people using this as proof in suggestions for other hats since right now the range looks to be closer to 18-21, so it should not be taken as more than 18 after overpay.

I didn't offer for, or own a DP Law, but I got a DP TC for a time. Definitely overpriced, I had difficulties to sell it for 12 when it's suggested at 20-21. I finally sold my TC and around 6+ buds of sweets for a complete strange festive set after negociation. And he still have bad time selling that TC.

Same for miami nights one, the TC is a popular but overpriced at, don't think new effects worth that.