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Yes, my first price suggestion and too unusual, but I guess proof can work
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18747735 - Sold for 2 buds 10 keys (2.5), also got offer Searing Plasma Private Eye (2.3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19240789 - B/O of 3 buds, offered Scorching Copper's (2.5), Scorching Mongolian + Bill's (2.3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18979158 - Offered Peace Sign Milkmann + Stormy Little Buddy (2.4)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18680043 - Sold for 2.2 buds, offered DP Yellow Belt (2.3)
It would appear you have not accounted for any unusual overpay or taken notice of outdated prices. Example:
Price on the Scorching Copper's is 6 months old and would be worth 2.9 buds if you use the original values provided on the graph as well as using the mid-price *0.9 to account for the unusual overpay
Also this link:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18747735 - Sold for 2 buds 10 keys (2.5), also got offer Searing Plasma Private Eye (2.3)
Is the exact same hat as:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18680043 - Sold for 2.2 buds, offered DP Yellow Belt (2.3)
A hat can't exactly sell twice can it. It appears the 2 buds + 10 keys sale was the final one. However this still leaves quite a few other sales that you've not established.
Sorry mate but until this proof is refined it's a straight up downvote from me.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19296141 - dixie + 1.2 pure for hearts topi + GF honchos
Probably falls in the range even though they are dated
The pure sale is the most compelling here - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030473541?time=1396422000 - 2.5 pure