Year old price.

Sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17611225

-a bit old, sold for 80 keys=~4.1 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17494121

-a bit old, tossle+1 bud+15 keys+ks sf nade bought ge hwnn: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17190375

-~4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18910668

-sold for pe glengarry+2 buds: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075392631?time=1397286000

-~4.9 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18840896

-wanted 4.5 buds

-sold for pro gold scatter (parts)+10 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18633419

-seems to have sold for nnb boa=~4.1 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18686933

-tossle+lime bills ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2452879079,126,6 ) seem to have sold for ge fed: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18569491

-~4.4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18376364

-sold for c9 glasgow=~5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16983965

-sold for ge whoopee+blizz milkman (both outdated)=4.2 buds

Current trades:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19317578

-wants 4.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19217471

-wants 5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19103759

Sales: 4, 4.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 4.9, 5

Note that quite a few of the sales in the middle involve the duped vivid tossle but they seem similar in value, with some clean sales ~4 and duped sales ~5. Going with a range of 4-5 here.