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Counter suggestion
Sale #1 (Outlier)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18461481
Sold for 12 keys pure
Backpack of seller
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025278112?time=1394179200 Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025278112?time=1394294254 After
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010965136?time=1394179200 Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010965136?time=1394332380 After
Total: 12 keys
Sale #2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18919142
Sold for Miami Night Dread Knot (1.2 buds * 0.9 = ~1.1 buds) + Strange Degreaser with Allies Extinguished(2.47 keys)
Backpack of seller
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047918912?time=1397199600 Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047918912?time=1397458800 After
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082728911?time=1397286000 Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082728911?time=1397572475 After
Total: ~ 1.2 buds. Eventhough in the offer, there was the mention of strange original and sweets. Looking at the backpack history, apart from the degreaser, there was no other sweets and the strange original wasn't traded either.
Sale #3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19208657.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18870865
Traded Data Mining Light Dead Presidents + ~5.3 keys in sweets (Non-craftable Executioner Painted Gold(2.32 refs) + Strange Phlogistinator(6 refs) + Strange Gold Botkiller Wrench Mk. II(3.5 keys) + 0.66 refs + Beep Boy(1.66 refs) + Trash Toter(2.66 refs)) for Hustler's Hallmark Steaming (1.2 buds) Refer to mini suggestion (No overpay applied)
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104946953?time=1398063600 Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104946953?time=1398222334 After
http://i.imgur.com/0w4ytc7.jpg (Credits to -[ U.B ]- Electrical Milk)
Total: ~0.9 bud
Mini suggestion for Hustler's Hallmark Steaming
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18849890 Sold for Private Eye Bubbling (1.2 buds) (No overpay applied)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19389391 b/o 1.2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19288592 b/o 1.25 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19371367 b/o 1.2 buds
Taking 1.2 buds as the mini suggestion price as it is the most commonly traded value.
Miami Nights Dread Knot is actually ~1.1 buds
Dread Knot [ 1.0 + 1.3 = 2.3 /2 = 1.15 x 0.9 = 1.035 = ~1 ]
Degreaser [ 2.47 / 19.25 = 0.12 = ~0.1 ]
Sometimes you can't trust the average the Unusual Price gives you, in this case 1.15 is 1.2 rounded up, you should manually get the average yourself and then calculate overpay.
Well if you calculate it that way.
Miami Dread knot is actually [1.15 * 0.9 = 1.035 buds]
Degreaser [2.47/19.25 = 0.128 buds]
Total: 1.035 + 0.128 = 1.163 buds which is ~ 1.2 buds.