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Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18585964 - sold for KaW conjurer's cowl ~5.3 see mini-suggestion below ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18587526 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18328221 - 4 b/o (1 month old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18025870 - 5 b/o (2 months old)
KaW conjurer's cowl (mini-suggestion)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18620678 - sold for miami hat with no name ~5 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18660644 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17669421 - sold for purple energy conjurer's cowl ~5.2 (price a bit outdated, can't track the sales properly, anyway its price is in the range) ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18736892 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18587526 - sold for miami well-rounded rifleman (~4.5) + diamond prof sniper rifle (~1.1 according to trade.tf ) = ~ 5.6 (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18930979)
if one cant get 4 for 1 month, im pretty sure 5.3 is an outlier
One of the most notable offers is dbd larrikin (~2.2) + stormy flamenco (~1.6) + 5 keys pure (0.2) = 4 buds, but the trader wanted more pure - 10 keys, making it 4.3 in total. I dunno why has he refused such a sweet offer.
Cowl suggestion is probably off. That is closer to 4.
As an aside, all suggestions for new hats require two sales to establish a range.