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First Unusual Suggestion, don't kill me if I get this wrong. All solds in other suggestions are <6 months old.
Unsolds
Asking 14 CS:GO Keys, offers of 12, 13 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19409057
Offer of 11 keys: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19019510[/url]
Asking 15 keys, no responses: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19287631
Classifieds: One is asking 15 keys, no response, another is asking 18 keys (Painted Lime), no response. http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52d2a5c04cd7b84f5c8b4567
If you have records of recent solds (1 Month or less) please comment the link.
You need to have solds at 15 to show it can get 15 keys which is in your range, but the only proof here is offers of 11,12 and 13 keys, buyouts don't set a price sorry, downdope
When lowering a hat B/Os are valid though sales will always hold more weight.
I'm not very familiar with the CS:GO market but I was under the impression that CS:GO keys and TF2 keys were not the same value with CS:GO being more.
Most people on Outpost who trade CS:GO keys for TF2 keys do 1CS:GO key:2 TF2 Keys or 1 key 3 refined for each CS:GO key or something similar.
I have some information for you which will be beneficial. However, I think you will need to resuggest this as I'm not convinced by the CS:GO to TF2 Keys pricing.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19533271 Perfect example of a guy selling a CS:GO Key for 1 Key + 1.33 Ref in TF2. Not like your thought of 1:2 and 2:3 situation. It's a B/O, it doesn't mean they actually get that.
http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h184/Lavendertf2/KetchePricing_zpsefb844bd.png Recent sold for 14-15 keys (Involving items)
http://i.imgur.com/N5Pg1Zt.jpg: Logo Ketche (~14) + 27 Keys for a 1.8-2 bud G Fetti Tree. Ketche in this case is valued at 13-14 keys since it's unusual overpay. Keep in mind this is more or less a reference to be considered and not to be priced with.
My choice, a range of 13-14.
Thanks for counterproof. If this doesn't get accepted I will take your advice and resubmit lower.
Thanks for the research
Going to start spreading the word around here. We are updating our unusual suggestion guidelines so that b/os can no longer be used as the only source of proof. All suggestions must have at least one sale. The guidelines should be updated tomorrow.
EDIT: Now there are 2 in classifieds for 18 keys. http://imgur.com/Me11tCc
13x CS:GO keys got a higher value than 13x TF2 keys.
Downvote, sorry.