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Resuggesting with more sales. Thank you polar bear for the input.
No longer a conservative drop, please note that there is 1 available for 10 buds in the market and hasn't been sold for 11 days.
Sold with gifted green energy hot dogger (2.41) for arcana headsplitter (15.5 buds - excluding crone sale as stated by Blind Polar Bear in the previous closed suggestion, headsplitter was offered) ~ 13.1 buds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18227268
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013080911?time=1395558000 - before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013080911?time=1395730800 - after
Gifted GE hotdogger notable offers:
2.4 buds
47 keys
Using 2.4 buds here, since 47 keys is ~2.41.
Sold for most probably 450 USD ~ 13.63 buds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18514369
Sold with 6.8 buds for a disco crone (27.5) ~ 20.7 buds (outlier):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18750150
Sold for a KAW crones + 3 buds ~ 13 buds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18979421
Sold for a flaming lantern cannonball + 9 keys ~ 11.5 (maybe):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19078123
Sold for lantern bomber + burning lord cockswain ~ 16:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19380854
Sold for a darkblaze war pig (11.7 buds after overpay):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18995182
The darkblaze war pig was bought for anti freeze company man (13 buds), its the most recent sale and only one in the market:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17664713 - the war pig
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16880171 - the company man
My comment from the previous suggestion:
So, from what I'm gathering, the sales here (including sweets) are:
(1) Headsplitter trade ~13
(2) 450 USD: 13.6
(3) Crones ~20.7
(4) KAW crones ~13
(5) Cannonball ~11.5 maybe
(6) War Pig ~11.7
(7) Lantern Bomber ~16
We have enough sales here that this should be based on the sales. 10 (B/O), 11.5, 11.7, 13, 13, 13.6, 15 (B/O), 16, 20.
Given the month old b/o at 15, the two high sales are probably outliers (the disco crones probably needs an update. I'd throw out the two high end sales and the two low end values of 10 and 11.5 and set the range here at 11.7-13.6.
I do not see a sale at 10? You say base on sales, then proceed to include a 10? Where is the sale for 10.
you are missing 2 sales....
there was a 1:1 for a spellbound buto (19.6)
then there was a sale for a spellbound buto + 50 keys pure. (I sold one for this, ~22)
your lineup of ACTUAL SALES becomes
11.5, 11.7, 13, 13, 13.6, 16, 19.6, 20, 22
with an average of 15.6
throwing 2 top/2 bottom
gives you 13-19.6
which is a ridiculous range
but it doesn't justify cherry picking low sales to destroy value.
and before you all go screaming bloody murder, here's proof.
here is my sale for spellbound buto + 50 keys pure.
http://i.imgur.com/YIlZXIU.png
here is a 1:1 for a spellbound buto
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15737701
Well, when there is a b/o of 15 up for a month, it certainly shouldn't be more than that. New effects are moving targets. Yes, 2 months ago (at the time of the buto sale), this may very well have gotten 20 (those high end sales), but it certainly doesn't any more as suggested by the month old b/o at 15 and your own attempt to sell at 10 in 11 days.
I can understand your disappointment that a hat you own is dropping. I have faced that many times before. But as a seller, you should also know that, if anything, this range is generous. Keep in mind, all prices in the website are based in PURE. And calling this 12-13 pure, is quite frankly generous.
90% of pricing suggestions I've ever seen have 0 pure sales.
Its a joke if you think all prices on this website are based in pure.How the fuck can you say with a straight face that 12-13 is generous when you cite a sale for 13.6 in cash?
As a seller, I don't give a fuck what you or anyone else has to say. Its my hat and I'll sell it for what I want.
As far as an accurate representation of the hats sale prices over the last 2 months I fail to see how you can wave your hands and make 2 sales disappear. Then call other sales in that range outliers.
Keep in mind that this is the precise kind of bullshit that makes people distrust this site.
So yeah in your mind you've already decided what will happen. You're here to destroy the prices of summer effects.
Whatever.
Well, you would be crazy to think that an item for which 5 exist 3 months ago will be worth the same now when twice as many exist.... Not sure how you can think that summer hats should retain value when more and more keep getting unboxed. And at the end of the day, more important than even the number in existence is the number on the market at a given time. And with most summer hats, every one in existence is on the market at a given time. If you really think summer effects shouldn't be going down, you are living in a dream world.