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4 on the market, 2 of them have non-recent sales
Valid sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18317742 - sold for massed flies stash ~2.8 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2476822617,54,5 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19442745 - sold for DP tower of hats ~4.5 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19453976 )
There are more sales on the lucky than the fed, so that should be used to price this instead of the other way around. Excluding the fed sale, the range over there would have been 2.7-2.8.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19442745 - his b/o was 4, so the sale for the tower shouldn't be valued more than that.
I think a range of 2.8-4 would be better
Well, shouldn't we value such sales not according to b/o or TS valuation of that hat, but using backpack.tf pricelist?
All prices on this site are supposed to be, as close as possible, estimations of a hat's value in PURE. This is difficult to do because most sales for unusuals are with other unusuals. We try to tackle this issue by giving a 10% overpay calculation, but that is at best a conservative and crude estimation.
Overpay in its truest sense is someone paying more than someone's b/o in pure. In this case, the b/o was 4 in pure. Someone paid 4.5 in unusuals as overpay. It should be valued at no more than 4.
Then I'll resuggest with 4 being high-end